Boston Red Sox – Chicago Cubs

MLB, first game of a doubleheader at Fenway Park, with Chicago as the visiting team and Boston as the home team. Start confirmed for 25 September 2026 at 17:05 UTC, with the game moved from 27 September.

Boston was listed at 85–74 and Chicago at 88–71. Over the last ten games, Chicago was reported at .243 at the plate, 29 extra-base hits, 12 home runs, and a collective ERA of 3,52; Boston at .208, 20 extra-base hits, 8 home runs, and a collective ERA of 2,71.

These data are published by Bleacher Nation, but are not adjusted for opponent quality, ballparks, or the lineups used. The special rules for the doubleheader, the exact order of the games, and the weather-adjusted conditions are information unavailable.

The latest identifiable prior result is Cubs 2–1 Marlins on 24 September 2026. No recent matchup between Chicago and Boston is documented in the file as evidence for this game.

The usable head-to-head history is therefore information unavailable; this does not allow a conclusion that no prior meetings occurred.

Boston: Willson Contreras was probably “day-to-day” with a hand injury; Curtis Mead, Masataka Yoshida, Eli White, Anthony Seigler and several relievers were listed on injured lists in Bleacher Nation’s report. Chicago: Alex Bregman and Kevin Gausman were probably “day-to-day”; several pitchers, including Ben Brown, Cade Horton, Justin Steele and Porter Hodge, were reported unavailable.

Actual participation, pregame moves and the exact availability of relievers are not confirmed. CBS and Bleacher Nation differed on some expected returns, without resolution from a direct source.

Boston can control the game if its recent collective pitching continues, if Gamboa exploits his left-handed profile, and if the Red Sox reach Holmes early and then protect the home-field advantage. This assessment is limited by Gamboa's only third scheduled start, his unknown duration, and the lack of confirmation regarding the relievers.

Chicago can apply pressure thanks to its better record and recent offensive production, with Holmes likely to provide more volume as a starter. This assessment is weakened by his previous outing against Cincinnati, six earned runs in 5⅓ innings, as well as uncertainty surrounding the lineups, recent opponents, and bullpen fatigue.

Final weather information is unavailable; the forecast consulted on September 23 then indicated sustained wind and rather dry conditions, without confirming the conditions at first pitch.

The official starting lineups are not confirmed. Probable pitchers: Chicago was expected to start with Clay Holmes, right-handed, 6–8, ERA 3,25 and 75 strikeouts; Boston with Alec Gamboa, left-handed, 1–0, ERA 1,16 and 22 strikeouts.

MLB and une source spécialisée agreed on the schedule and pitchers; an official Red Sox page was contradictory and appeared outdated.

Selection: Under 6.5 runs (Totals). Unconditional win probability: 51.6%, source: consensus of market odds without vigorish.

Odds 1.909, price measurement: 25 Sept 2026, 13:56. No-bet decision: this probability is insufficient to justify a wager under the available conditions.