New York Yankees – Tampa Bay Rays

American League Division Series, best-of-five, with Tampa Bay as the visiting team and New York as the home team at Yankee Stadium for Game 4 scheduled for October 8, 2026, at 8 p.m. ET, if necessary. The Rays finished the regular season with 98 wins, including a 42-22 record in the American League since July 20 and a 55-26 home record, according to MLB on September 27.

The Yankees swept Boston in the Wild Card Series with 18 runs in two games, according to MLB on October 1. The level of opposition remains difficult to compare directly: the cited performances come from different series and periods.

Tampa Bay won the regular-season matchup 7-6 in 2026, while New York won the recent four-game series at Yankee Stadium, according to reports by MLB on October 1, 2026. These results indicate a balanced matchup, but their predictive value is limited by the lack of game-by-game detail, roster changes, and uncertainty regarding the Game 4 pitchers.

Judge’s exact status, the possible return of Ryan Weathers, and the medical situations of Tyler Wells, Garrett Cleavinger, and Shane McClanahan remained uncertain as of October 1, 2026. McClanahan was not expected to pitch in this series.

Any bullpen restrictions and the players’ final availability are unconfirmed.

Yankees scenario: if Judge plays and Cole or Rodón, or the best available arms, arrive rested, the offensive power, rotation, and Yankee Stadium advantage could tilt a close game. Cole had a 2.50 ERA in three starts against Tampa Bay in 2026, and Rodón a 0.00 ERA in one start, according to MLB on October 1.

Rays scenario: Tampa Bay can rely on a well-rested rotation, a flexible bullpen, and Drew Rasmussen, who posted 16 wins, a 2.67 ERA, and a 0.91 WHIP, with a 5-2 record, a 1.81 ERA, and a 0.86 WHIP against the Yankees during the regular season, according to MLB on October 1. Bullpen fatigue, starting pitchers, and the prior series score remain unknown.

The participants are the Tampa Bay Rays and the New York Yankees. The final postseason lineups and rosters are not confirmed.

Aaron Judge was recovering from a right calf strain, and his ability to play remained uncertain as of October 1, 2026. Ben Rice, Austin Wells, and George Lombard Jr. were described as recent offensive contributors.

The existence of Game 4 depends on the series score.

Selection: New York Yankees (Moneyline). Estimated probability: 59.4%, based on market odds. Odds 1.592. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.