Real Sociedad +1.5
Observed odds
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AthleticClub
RealSociedad
Real Sociedad +1.5
Observed odds
Prediction: Real Sociedad +1.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 80.6 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Read the full analysisPrediction: Real Sociedad +1.5 · Handicap. Estimated probability: 80.6 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
Athletic Club are coming off a 0-0 draw at Valencia on 17 October 2026, followed by a 1-3 defeat at Levante on 21 October. Real Sociedad beat Deportivo La Coruña 3-2 on 11 October, after taking a 3-0 lead and then playing the final hour with ten men.
Athletic's schedule then included Getafe on 25 October and AE Prat in the Cup on 29 October: rotation or fatigue ahead of the derby is possible, but remains hypothetical. No homogeneous and comparable dataset of xG, shots, or pressing has been established for the two teams.
The documented recent head-to-head meetings indicate Athletic Club 1-1 Real Sociedad in Liga 2025-26, Athletic Club 1-0 in 2024-25, 2-1 in 2023-24, and 2-0 in 2022-23. On 2 October 2026, in a friendly, Athletic won 1-0 thanks to a Maroan header from a set piece.
These results have limited prédictive valeur: several seasons separate the Liga matches, squads and coaches may have changed, and the friendly was affected by international absences.
Nico Williams was announced as having a muscle injury to the left rectus femoris on October 1, 2026, but his availability on November 1 is not confirmed. Jon Mikel Aramburu suffered a muscle injury to the right soleus, announced on October 7, 2026; his availability depended on his recovery.
No confirmed suspension or other decisive medical absence has been established.
Athletic can use San Mamés, aerial duels, second balls, and set pieces; it scored a headed goal against Real on October 2. Real Sociedad can overturn this plan through quick transitions and actions around the box, mechanisms seen in its 3-2 win against Deportivo, including a goal from a corner, another in transition, and a shot from the edge of the box.
Une source spécialisée scenario is strengthened by Nico Williams’s return and controlled schedule management; the Real scenario depends on Aramburu’s availability, defensive discipline, and any fatigue or rotation on the opponent’s side. The standings published on October 24 placed Real 5th with 16 points and Athletic 13th with 9 points, but the table contained an inconsistency regarding the number of matches played and does not allow the qualification or relegation stakes to be specified.
No official starting XI, no definitive squad list, no starting goalkeeper, and no press conference specific to this match had been confirmed before the research. The starters in the 2 October friendly do not make it possible to infer the derby lineup.
Eleven from the previous match, against Getafe on 25 October 2026
CoachE. Terzić
Eleven from the previous match, against Levante on 25 October 2026
CoachP. Matarazzo
Bench
Athletic ClubReal Sociedad
RecordAthletic Club · 1W · 0D · 2L
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 10 | +29 | 27 | 9 | 0 | 1 | 40 | 11 | LWWWW | |
| 2 | 10 | +12 | 25 | 8 | 1 | 1 | 20 | 8 | WWWWW | |
| 3 | 10 | +15 | 24 | 8 | 0 | 2 | 25 | 10 | WWWLW | |
| 4 | 10 | +2 | 20 | 6 | 2 | 2 | 16 | 14 | DLWDW | |
| 5 | 10 | +1 | 19 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 19 | 18 | WWWWL | |
| 6 | 10 | 0 | 17 | 5 | 2 | 3 | 16 | 16 | WLDLW | |
| 7 | 10 | +3 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 14 | 11 | DLLDL | |
| 8 | 9 | +3 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 3 | 12 | 9 | WLDD | |
| 9 | 10 | +3 | 12 | 2 | 6 | 2 | 10 | 7 | DWDWD | |
| 10 | 10 | +1 | 12 | 3 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 14 | WDLWW | |
| 11 | 10 | 0 | 11 | 2 | 5 | 3 | 13 | 13 | LDLDL | |
| 12 | 10 | -10 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 10 | 20 | LWLDL | |
| 13 | 10 | -11 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 5 | 15 | 26 | WLDLL | |
| 14 | 10 | -3 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 16 | 19 | LWDDL | |
| 15 | 10 | -3 | 10 | 2 | 4 | 4 | 14 | 17 | WDDWL | |
| 16 | 9 | -8 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 12 | 20 | LDDW | |
| 17 | 10 | -10 | 9 | 2 | 3 | 5 | 5 | 15 | LDLWL | |
| 18 | 10 | -2 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 6 | 12 | 14 | LLDLL | |
| 19 | 10 | -10 | 6 | 1 | 3 | 6 | 7 | 17 | LDDLW | |
| 20 | 10 | -12 | 5 | 0 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 19 | DLDLL |