Prediction Autriche – Israël: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Autriche

Ligue des nations · InternationalSeason 2026

Full time

3 – 1

Thursday, 24 September 2026 · 20:45

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Israël

PickAutricheHome win
Estimated probability69%

43'1-0Romano SchmidFrom the penalty spotAustria
HT1-0
55'1-1Sayd Abu FarhiIsrael
90'2-1Phillipp MweneAustriaAssist · Paul Wanner
90+3'3-1Sasa KalajdzicAustriaAssist · Christoph Lang

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Austria wins

Best odds

1xBet1.44

Bet3651.42

Pinnacle1.41

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskRecent form, results, rest, and quality of chances are not available in a verifiable manner.
RiskOfficial lineups not published, notably the goalkeeper and Laimer’s replacement.
RiskSignificant Austrian renewal, with Alaba, Arnautović, Sabitzer, Baumgartner and Laimer unavailable or absent from the squad.

View more data

RiskNo individual Israeli medical absence or suspension verified in the sources consulted.
RiskLimited relevance of the head-to-head encounters, which date from 2019 to 2021.
Invalidation conditionAustrian lineup clearly confirming or disproving the solution for replacing Laimer.
Invalidation conditionLast-minute absence on the Israeli side, notably in goal or among the creative players.
Invalidation conditionOfficial change to the Raiffeisen Arena, the venue or the home status.
Invalidation conditionPublication of the official lineups revealing a setup incompatible with the current reading.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Read the full analysis

Austria have a slight structural advantage thanks to home support in Linz and Israel having to travel, but this assessment remains fragile against an Israeli side featuring several creative attacking players. The decisive limitation is the uncertainty surrounding the lineups and the real impact of Austria’s turnover, notably the absence of Laimer and several key players.

Recent form · Written before the match

This is matchday one of Group B3 of the 2026/27 UEFA Nations League, on September 24, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, at the Raiffeisen Arena in Linz, Austria. No last match actually played, result, venue, rest period, or comparable form indicator can be verified in the dossier before this encounter.

Israel must travel to Linz and begins a four-match window from September 24 to October 6. The initial standings listing Israel first and Austria second with zero matches and zero points are not sportingly actionable.

The group winner is promoted directly to League A, the runner-up plays a promotion-relegation playoff, and the fourth-placed team plays a playoff against a League C team.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The documented encounters include Austria 4-2 Israel on 12 November 2021 in the 2022 World Cup qualifiers, Israel 4-2 Austria on 25 March 2019, and Austria 3-1 Israel on 11 October 2019. The record indicated by the UEFA dossier is 13 matches, 6 Austrian wins, 4 draws, and 3 losses.

These precedents date from 2019 to 2021 and have limited prédictive valeur, as the squads, coaches, and structures in 2026 may be different.

Absences and returns

For Austria, Konrad Laimer is confirmed out due to a minor left adductor injury, announced on 18 September 2026. David Alaba was not called up because he was not considered fit to play; Marko Arnautović has retired from international football, Marcel Sabitzer is taking a break from the national team, and Christoph Baumgartner is injured, according to publications from 18 and 21 September 2026.

For Israel, no verified individual medical absence or suspension has been published in the sources consulted. This does not allow for the conclusion that there are no injured Israeli players.

Context & news

Austria benefit from home advantage in Linz, while Israel have to travel. Laimer’s absence may reduce midfield continuity and transition control, but the effect depends on his replacement.

Favorable scenario for Austria: home advantage and better control of transitions compensate for the team’s turnover. Opposing scenario: Israel exploit the spaces in a reshuffled Austrian midfield, and their creative players impose rapid transitions.

The precise mechanisms of progression, box defending, and set pieces are not documented.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 14:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	22	1601	22
	77	1326	77

LineupsStarting XI

Autriche4-2-3-1

CoachR. Rangnick

Israël4-2-3-1

CoachR. Ben Shimon

Full squad

Bench

Autriche

Substitutes12

Israël

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Autriche

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.69	0	0	0	90	0
6.28	0	1	3	90	0
6.88	0	0	2	90	0
6.49	0	0	0	90	1
7.57	1	1	2	90	0
7.2	0	0	0	90	1
6.58	0	0	0	73	0
6.28	0	0	1	73	1
7.8	1	2	2	82	0
6.15	0	0	1	45	0
6.55	0	0	1	36	0

See all (11)

Israël

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.76	0	0	0	90	1	0
5.92	0	0	0	64	0	0
6.5	0	0	0	90	0	0
6.04	0	0	0	90	0	0
5.75	0	0	1	90	0	0
5.84	0	0	1	64	0	0
6.35	0	0	1	85	1	0
6.06	0	0	0	90	0	0
6.24	0	0	0	85	0	0
5.88	0	0	0	73	0	0
6.87	1	1	1	56	0	1

See all (11)

Events

26'Yellow card · FoulAutriche
31'Yellow card · FoulIsraël
36'SubstitutionAutriche
43'PenaltyAutriche
45'SubstitutionAutriche
51'Yellow cardAutriche
51'Yellow cardIsraël
55'GoalIsraël
56'Red cardIsraël
64'Yellow card · FoulAutriche
64'SubstitutionIsraël
64'SubstitutionIsraël
73'SubstitutionAutriche
73'SubstitutionAutriche
73'SubstitutionIsraël
82'SubstitutionAutriche
85'SubstitutionIsraël
85'SubstitutionIsraël
90'Yellow card · Time wastingIsraël
90'Goal · Assist: Paul WannerAutriche
90+3'Goal · Assist: Christoph LangAutriche

See all (21)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

AutricheIsraël

9Shots on target1

19Shots5

3Yellow cards↓2

4Corners2

0Saves6

0Red cards↓1

15Fouls↓4

All statistics (16)

Attack

15Shots inside the box3

4Shots outside the box2

3Blocked shots2

7Shots off target2

2Offsides1

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Accurate passes370

457Passes440

Discipline

4Free kicks15

Head-to-head

W3–1last month
W4–212 Nov 2021 · World Cup - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 9
W5–24 Sept 2021 · World Cup - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 5

RecordAutriche · 3W · 0D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

24 September ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Stadium: Ernst-Happel-Stadion
City: Vienna
Referee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
Capacity: 50,865
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Autriche

Ligue des nations · InternationalSeason 2026

Full time

3 – 1

Thursday, 24 September 2026 · 20:45

Ernst-Happel-Stadion

Israël

PickAutricheHome win
Estimated probability69%

43'1-0Romano SchmidFrom the penalty spotAustria
HT1-0
55'1-1Sayd Abu FarhiIsrael
90'2-1Phillipp MweneAustriaAssist · Paul Wanner
90+3'3-1Sasa KalajdzicAustriaAssist · Christoph Lang

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Austria wins

Best odds

1xBet1.44

Bet3651.42

Pinnacle1.41

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskRecent form, results, rest, and quality of chances are not available in a verifiable manner.
RiskOfficial lineups not published, notably the goalkeeper and Laimer’s replacement.
RiskSignificant Austrian renewal, with Alaba, Arnautović, Sabitzer, Baumgartner and Laimer unavailable or absent from the squad.

View more data

RiskNo individual Israeli medical absence or suspension verified in the sources consulted.
RiskLimited relevance of the head-to-head encounters, which date from 2019 to 2021.
Invalidation conditionAustrian lineup clearly confirming or disproving the solution for replacing Laimer.
Invalidation conditionLast-minute absence on the Israeli side, notably in goal or among the creative players.
Invalidation conditionOfficial change to the Raiffeisen Arena, the venue or the home status.
Invalidation conditionPublication of the official lineups revealing a setup incompatible with the current reading.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

The group winner is promoted directly to League A, the runner-up plays a promotion-relegation playoff, and the fourth-placed team plays a playoff against a League C team.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

These precedents date from 2019 to 2021 and have limited prédictive valeur, as the squads, coaches, and structures in 2026 may be different.

Absences and returns

For Israel, no verified individual medical absence or suspension has been published in the sources consulted. This does not allow for the conclusion that there are no injured Israeli players.

Context & news

Austria benefit from home advantage in Linz, while Israel have to travel. Laimer’s absence may reduce midfield continuity and transition control, but the effect depends on his replacement.

The precise mechanisms of progression, box defending, and set pieces are not documented.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 14:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	22	1601	22
	77	1326	77

LineupsStarting XI

Autriche4-2-3-1

CoachR. Rangnick

Israël4-2-3-1

CoachR. Ben Shimon

Full squad

Bench

Autriche

Substitutes12

Israël

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Autriche

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.69	0	0	0	90	0
6.28	0	1	3	90	0
6.88	0	0	2	90	0
6.49	0	0	0	90	1
7.57	1	1	2	90	0
7.2	0	0	0	90	1
6.58	0	0	0	73	0
6.28	0	0	1	73	1
7.8	1	2	2	82	0
6.15	0	0	1	45	0
6.55	0	0	1	36	0

See all (11)

Israël

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.76	0	0	0	90	1	0
5.92	0	0	0	64	0	0
6.5	0	0	0	90	0	0
6.04	0	0	0	90	0	0
5.75	0	0	1	90	0	0
5.84	0	0	1	64	0	0
6.35	0	0	1	85	1	0
6.06	0	0	0	90	0	0
6.24	0	0	0	85	0	0
5.88	0	0	0	73	0	0
6.87	1	1	1	56	0	1

See all (11)

Events

26'Yellow card · FoulAutriche
31'Yellow card · FoulIsraël
36'SubstitutionAutriche
43'PenaltyAutriche
45'SubstitutionAutriche
51'Yellow cardAutriche
51'Yellow cardIsraël
55'GoalIsraël
56'Red cardIsraël
64'Yellow card · FoulAutriche
64'SubstitutionIsraël
64'SubstitutionIsraël
73'SubstitutionAutriche
73'SubstitutionAutriche
73'SubstitutionIsraël
82'SubstitutionAutriche
85'SubstitutionIsraël
85'SubstitutionIsraël
90'Yellow card · Time wastingIsraël
90'Goal · Assist: Paul WannerAutriche
90+3'Goal · Assist: Christoph LangAutriche

See all (21)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

AutricheIsraël

9Shots on target1

19Shots5

3Yellow cards↓2

4Corners2

0Saves6

0Red cards↓1

15Fouls↓4

All statistics (16)

Attack

15Shots inside the box3

4Shots outside the box2

3Blocked shots2

7Shots off target2

2Offsides1

Passing

51%Possession49%

397Accurate passes370

457Passes440

Discipline

4Free kicks15

Head-to-head

W3–1last month
W4–212 Nov 2021 · World Cup - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 9
W5–24 Sept 2021 · World Cup - Qualification Europe · Group Stage - 5

RecordAutriche · 3W · 0D · 0L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

24 September ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Stadium: Ernst-Happel-Stadion
City: Vienna
Referee: Georgi Nikolov Kabakov
Capacity: 50,865
Surface: Natural grass

All our results