Prediction Estac Troyes – Lens: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

EstacTroyes

Ligue 1 · FranceSeason 2026

Full time

1 – 3

Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 20:45

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Lens

PickRC Lens
Estimated probability53%

13'1-0Adrien MonfrayOwn goalLens
26'2-0Timothee NkadaEstac Troyes
45+2'2-1Odsonne ÉdouardLensAssist · Florian Thauvin
HT1-2
55'2-2Ruben AguilarLensAssist · Florian Thauvin

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

RC Lens wins

Archived odds 1.85

Best odds

DAZN Bet1.85

Bet3651.80

PMU1.79

Archived odds

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Selection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 72,5%, based on our model. Odds 1.6. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.

Read the full analysis

Selection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 72,5%, based on our model. Odds 1.6. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.

Recent form · Written before the match

Troyes drew 0-0 against Paris FC on August 22, won 2-1 at Lorient on August 29, then lost 2-6 to Strasbourg on September 6, 0-2 at Lille on September 13, and 0-2 at Angers on September 19. On October 6, the LFP reported three consecutive defeats, ten goals conceded, and two matches without scoring.

Lens's last five matches, as well as the rest and travel verified by a single official source, are not established here. No comparable xG, shot volume, or pressing indicator is known.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

No recent Troyes-Lens head-to-head with a sufficiently verifiable score and date is established in the pages consulted. The Coupe de France meeting is not included because it does not concern the requested event.

The direct history therefore does not constitute a prédictive signal here.

Absences and returns

As of October 7, Lens announced that Maik Nawrocki would be out until the end of the season and that Abdallah Sima had returned from international duty injured; Titraoui, Abdulhamid, Chávez and Baidoo were back in the squad, while Todibo was due to be reassessed. As of October 6, Troyes reported Ifnaoui, Gozzi, Titi and I. Boura absent, with Phliponeau returning.

The definitive suspensions and any updates to these statuses before Troyes-Lens are unknown.

Context & news

The case for Lens is based on Troyes's recent vulnerability, its ten goals conceded over the series described and its two matches without scoring. Troyes could nevertheless benefit from home advantage and a Lens setup still adapting under Yannick Cahuzac; conversely, Lens's defensive absences, Sima's injury and the coaching change limit confidence in this scenario.

The alternative scenario is a Troyes reaction with a fully available first-choice XI and exploitation of Lens's defensive weaknesses; Lens could regain the upper hand through its defensive returns and transitions.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 13:19 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+5	14	4	2	0	10	5	DWDWW
2	6	+5	13	4	1	1	9	4	WLWWD
3	6	+2	13	4	1	1	12	10	WLWWW
4	6	+7	11	3	2	1	11	4	LWDWD
5	6	+4	11	3	2	1	8	4	LWDWW
6	6	+3	11	3	2	1	11	8	WWWLD
7	6	+3	8	2	2	2	12	9	WLLWD
8	6	0	8	2	2	2	6	6	WLDWL
9	6	-2	8	2	2	2	5	7	WWLDL
10	6	+1	7	2	1	3	11	10	WLDLL
11	6	-1	7	2	1	3	11	12	LLDWW
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	7	10	LWDLW
13	6	+1	6	2	0	4	9	8	WLLLL
14	6	-2	6	1	3	2	10	12	LWDDL
15	6	-2	6	1	3	2	9	11	DWDLD
16	6	-8	6	2	0	4	8	16	LWWLL
17	6	-9	4	1	1	4	4	13	LLLLW
18	6	-4	2	0	2	4	4	8	LLDLD

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Estac Troyes4-2-3-1

CoachS. Dumont

Lens3-4-2-1

CoachYannick Cahuzac

Full squad

Bench

Estac Troyes

Substitutes9

Lens

Substitutes9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

46 matches
45 matches
44 matches
46 matches
46 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

46 matches
46 matches
36 matches
36 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

65 matches
36 matches
36 matches
35 matches
26 matches

Player statistics

Estac Troyes

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
5.62	0	0	0	90	0
6.16	0	0	1	79	0
5.72	0	0	0	90	0
6.13	0	0	0	90	1
6.28	0	1	1	64	0
5.9	0	0	0	79	0
6.78	0	0	2	90	0
6.5	0	0	0	90	0
6.31	0	1	1	90	0
8	1	2	4	60	0
5.88	0	1	3	90	1

See all (11)

Lens

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.15	0	0	0	0	90
7.1	0	0	0	0	90
6.78	0	0	0	0	90
6.81	0	0	0	1	60
8.17	1	0	1	4	72
6.45	0	0	0	0	67
6.72	0	0	1	3	90
6.47	0	0	0	1	90
8.6	0	2	0	0	67
6.38	0	0	0	0	90
7.88	1	0	1	3	67

See all (11)

Events

13'Own goalLens
26'GoalEstac Troyes
45+2'Goal · Assist: Florian ThauvinLens
55'Goal · Assist: Florian ThauvinLens
60'SubstitutionLens
60'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
64'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
67'SubstitutionLens
67'SubstitutionLens
67'SubstitutionLens
72'SubstitutionLens
76'Yellow card · FoulEstac Troyes
76'Yellow card · DissentEstac Troyes
77'Yellow card · FoulLens
79'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
79'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
82'Yellow card · FoulLens

See all (17)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

Estac TroyesLens

1.27Expected goals1.45

5Shots on target3

1Saves4

12Shots13

2Yellow cards↓2

6Corners4

13Fouls↓11

All statistics (17)

Attack

7Shots inside the box9

5Shots outside the box4

3Blocked shots4

4Shots off target6

0Offsides1

Passing

41%Possession59%

306Accurate passes451

372Passes540

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

11Free kicks12

Recent formLigue 1

Estac Troyes

LLLLW

vs Marseille0–2L
vs Angers0–2L
vs Lille0–2L
vs Strasbourg2–6L
vs Lorient2–1W

Lens

WLDLL

vs Lyon2–1W
vs Monaco1–2L
vs Le Mans2–2D
vs Lorient0–1L
vs Strasbourg1–2L

Head-to-head

L2–48 months ago
D1–128 Jan 2023
W1–09 Sept 2022

RecordEstac Troyes · 1W · 1D · 1L

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Stadium: Stade de l'Aube
City: Troyes
Capacity: 21,877
Surface: Natural grass

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

EstacTroyes

Ligue 1 · FranceSeason 2026

Full time

1 – 3

Saturday, 17 October 2026 · 20:45

Stade de l'Aube, Troyes

Lens

PickRC Lens
Estimated probability53%

13'1-0Adrien MonfrayOwn goalLens
26'2-0Timothee NkadaEstac Troyes
45+2'2-1Odsonne ÉdouardLensAssist · Florian Thauvin
HT1-2
55'2-2Ruben AguilarLensAssist · Florian Thauvin

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

RC Lens wins

Archived odds 1.85

Best odds

DAZN Bet1.85

Bet3651.80

PMU1.79

Archived odds

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Selection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 72,5%, based on our model. Odds 1.6. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.

Read the full analysis

Selection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 72,5%, based on our model. Odds 1.6. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a wager at these odds.

Recent form · Written before the match

Lens's last five matches, as well as the rest and travel verified by a single official source, are not established here. No comparable xG, shot volume, or pressing indicator is known.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The direct history therefore does not constitute a prédictive signal here.

Absences and returns

The definitive suspensions and any updates to these statuses before Troyes-Lens are unknown.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 13:19 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	6	+5	14	4	2	0	10	5	DWDWW
2	6	+5	13	4	1	1	9	4	WLWWD
3	6	+2	13	4	1	1	12	10	WLWWW
4	6	+7	11	3	2	1	11	4	LWDWD
5	6	+4	11	3	2	1	8	4	LWDWW
6	6	+3	11	3	2	1	11	8	WWWLD
7	6	+3	8	2	2	2	12	9	WLLWD
8	6	0	8	2	2	2	6	6	WLDWL
9	6	-2	8	2	2	2	5	7	WWLDL
10	6	+1	7	2	1	3	11	10	WLDLL
11	6	-1	7	2	1	3	11	12	LLDWW
12	6	-3	7	2	1	3	7	10	LWDLW
13	6	+1	6	2	0	4	9	8	WLLLL
14	6	-2	6	1	3	2	10	12	LWDDL
15	6	-2	6	1	3	2	9	11	DWDLD
16	6	-8	6	2	0	4	8	16	LWWLL
17	6	-9	4	1	1	4	4	13	LLLLW
18	6	-4	2	0	2	4	4	8	LLDLD

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Estac Troyes4-2-3-1

CoachS. Dumont

Lens3-4-2-1

CoachYannick Cahuzac

Full squad

Bench

Estac Troyes

Substitutes9

Lens

Substitutes9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

46 matches
45 matches
44 matches
46 matches
46 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

46 matches
46 matches
36 matches
36 matches
35 matches

CardsCards

65 matches
36 matches
36 matches
35 matches
26 matches

Player statistics

Estac Troyes

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
5.62	0	0	0	90	0
6.16	0	0	1	79	0
5.72	0	0	0	90	0
6.13	0	0	0	90	1
6.28	0	1	1	64	0
5.9	0	0	0	79	0
6.78	0	0	2	90	0
6.5	0	0	0	90	0
6.31	0	1	1	90	0
8	1	2	4	60	0
5.88	0	1	3	90	1

See all (11)

Lens

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
7.15	0	0	0	0	90
7.1	0	0	0	0	90
6.78	0	0	0	0	90
6.81	0	0	0	1	60
8.17	1	0	1	4	72
6.45	0	0	0	0	67
6.72	0	0	1	3	90
6.47	0	0	0	1	90
8.6	0	2	0	0	67
6.38	0	0	0	0	90
7.88	1	0	1	3	67

See all (11)

Events

13'Own goalLens
26'GoalEstac Troyes
45+2'Goal · Assist: Florian ThauvinLens
55'Goal · Assist: Florian ThauvinLens
60'SubstitutionLens
60'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
64'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
67'SubstitutionLens
67'SubstitutionLens
67'SubstitutionLens
72'SubstitutionLens
76'Yellow card · FoulEstac Troyes
76'Yellow card · DissentEstac Troyes
77'Yellow card · FoulLens
79'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
79'SubstitutionEstac Troyes
82'Yellow card · FoulLens

See all (17)

Comparative statistics17 metrics

Estac TroyesLens

1.27Expected goals1.45

5Shots on target3

1Saves4

12Shots13

2Yellow cards↓2

6Corners4

13Fouls↓11

All statistics (17)

Attack

7Shots inside the box9

5Shots outside the box4

3Blocked shots4

4Shots off target6

0Offsides1

Passing

41%Possession59%

306Accurate passes451

372Passes540

Discipline

0Red cards↓0

11Free kicks12

Recent formLigue 1

Estac Troyes

LLLLW

vs Marseille0–2L
vs Angers0–2L
vs Lille0–2L
vs Strasbourg2–6L
vs Lorient2–1W

Lens

WLDLL

vs Lyon2–1W
vs Monaco1–2L
vs Le Mans2–2D
vs Lorient0–1L
vs Strasbourg1–2L

Head-to-head

L2–48 months ago
D1–128 Jan 2023
W1–09 Sept 2022

RecordEstac Troyes · 1W · 1D · 1L

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Stadium: Stade de l'Aube
City: Troyes
Capacity: 21,877
Surface: Natural grass

All our results