Prediction Gremio – Atletico Paranaense: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Gremio

BrasileirãoSeason 2026

Full time

2 – 0

Friday, 30 October 2026 · 01:30

Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

AtleticoParanaense

PickMoins de 3.5 buts
Estimated probability75%

39'1-0MarlonGremio
HT1-0
52'2-0Fabian BalbuenaGremio

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Under 3.5 goals

Archived odds 1.30

Best odds

Unibet1.30

Bwin1.28

Winamax1.27

Archived odds

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Prediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Read the full analysis

Prediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Recent form · Written before the match

Grêmio: 1-0 win at Coritiba on 26/10, after a 4-2 defeat against Cruzeiro on 18/10, a 1-1 draw against Internacional on 11/10, and a 1-1 draw at Remo on 07/10. Athletico: 1-1 draw at Vitória on 24/10, 2-0 defeat against Palmeiras on 17/10, 4-1 win at Chapecoense on 12/10, and 2-2 draw against Atlético Mineiro on 08/10.

Athletico’s recent results have been more productive offensively, but no comparable xG, shots, or pressing data is retained.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The first leg of the 2026 season ended 0-0 at Arena da Baixada. This precedent is not very prédictive: coaches, starters, and league-position context may differ. No advantage should be inferred from this result alone.

Absences and returns

Grêmio: Cristian Pavón and Diego Caito were ruled out after muscular problems against Coritiba on 26/10; Jovane Cabral, Juan Nardoni and Danilo Barbosa were also unavailable. Athletico: Kevin Viveros was doubtful after going off injured against Vitória on 24/10, with Kerwin Vargas as a possible replacement.

Athletico’s detailed suspensions and defensive absences were not confirmed.

Context & news

2026 Campeonato Brasileiro Série A match, 33rd round, on October 30 at 00:30 UTC at Arena do Grêmio in Porto Alegre; Grêmio are the home team. Athletico were described as involved in the fight near the top of the table, while Grêmio were seeking to escape the relegation zone; the exact standings were not confirmed.

Grêmio scenario: Kannemann’s return and a back three could shore up the center, while João Pedro and Marlon would look to exploit the flanks. Athletico scenario: if Viveros is fit, transitions and spaces behind the wing-backs could overturn this assessment.

Viveros’s status, the official lineup and Grêmio’s system are decisive.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 30 Oct 2026, 15:33 UTC

Standings

2026

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Gremio3-4-3

Atletico Paranaense3-4-2-1

Full squad

Bench

Gremio

Substitutes12

Atletico Paranaense

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Gremio

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

See all (11)

Atletico Paranaense

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

See all (11)

Events

23'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
29'Yellow cardGremio
37'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
39'GoalGremio
46'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
46'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
52'GoalGremio
62'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
66'Yellow cardGremio
67'SubstitutionGremio
67'SubstitutionGremio
68'SubstitutionGremio
69'Yellow cardGremio
79'SubstitutionGremio
80'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
87'SubstitutionGremio
88'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
89'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
90+2'Yellow cardGremio

See all (19)

Comparative statistics18 metricsPartial

GremioAtletico Paranaense

5Shots on target4

17Shots14

13Fouls↓14

6Corners8

31%Possession69%

3Yellow cards↓2

—Red cards—

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.31Expected goals1.08

6Shots off target4

6Blocked shots6

10Shots inside the box8

7Shots outside the box6

2Offsides0

-0.38Goals prevented-0.38

Passing

74%Pass accuracy90%

220Passes495

163Accurate passes447

Defence

4Saves3

Head-to-head

D0–05 months ago
W2–04 Aug 2024
W2–017 Apr 2024

RecordGremio · 2W · 1D · 0L

Match information

Competition: Brasileirão
Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Gremio

BrasileirãoSeason 2026

Full time

2 – 0

Friday, 30 October 2026 · 01:30

Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre

AtleticoParanaense

PickMoins de 3.5 buts
Estimated probability75%

39'1-0MarlonGremio
HT1-0
52'2-0Fabian BalbuenaGremio

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Under 3.5 goals

Archived odds 1.30

Best odds

Unibet1.30

Bwin1.28

Winamax1.27

Archived odds

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Prediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Read the full analysis

Prediction: Under 3.5 goals · Over/Under goals. Estimated probability: 74.5 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Recent form · Written before the match

Athletico’s recent results have been more productive offensively, but no comparable xG, shots, or pressing data is retained.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

Absences and returns

Athletico’s detailed suspensions and defensive absences were not confirmed.

Context & news

Viveros’s status, the official lineup and Grêmio’s system are decisive.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 30 Oct 2026, 15:33 UTC

Standings

2026

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Gremio3-4-3

Atletico Paranaense3-4-2-1

Full squad

Bench

Gremio

Substitutes12

Atletico Paranaense

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Gremio

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

See all (11)

Atletico Paranaense

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

See all (11)

Events

23'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
29'Yellow cardGremio
37'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
39'GoalGremio
46'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
46'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
52'GoalGremio
62'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
66'Yellow cardGremio
67'SubstitutionGremio
67'SubstitutionGremio
68'SubstitutionGremio
69'Yellow cardGremio
79'SubstitutionGremio
80'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
87'SubstitutionGremio
88'Yellow cardAtletico Paranaense
89'SubstitutionAtletico Paranaense
90+2'Yellow cardGremio

See all (19)

Comparative statistics18 metricsPartial

GremioAtletico Paranaense

5Shots on target4

17Shots14

13Fouls↓14

6Corners8

31%Possession69%

3Yellow cards↓2

—Red cards—

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.31Expected goals1.08

6Shots off target4

6Blocked shots6

10Shots inside the box8

7Shots outside the box6

2Offsides0

-0.38Goals prevented-0.38

Passing

74%Pass accuracy90%

220Passes495

163Accurate passes447

Defence

4Saves3

Head-to-head

D0–05 months ago
W2–04 Aug 2024
W2–017 Apr 2024

RecordGremio · 2W · 1D · 0L

Match information

Competition: Brasileirão
Venue: Arena do Grêmio, Porto Alegre
Referee: Alex Gomes Stefano

All our results

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L
1	33	+40	73	22	7	4
2	33	+34	70	20	10	3
3	33	+6	57	17	6	10
4	33	+10	54	15	9	9
5	33	+10	54	15	9	9
6	33	+6	53	14	11	8
7	33	+5	50	14	8	11
8	33	+2	47	12	11	10
9	33	+4	44	12	8	13
10	33	0	43	12	7	14
11	33	-8	39	10	9	14
12	32	-12	39	10	9	13
13	32	-9	38	10	8	14
14	32	-11	38	10	8	14
15	33	-7	37	9	10	14
16	32	-8	37	9	10	13
17	33	-5	35	8	11	14
18	32	-8	33	8	9	15
19	33	-15	29	6	11	16
20	32	-34	21	4	9	19

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8.2	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	1	68	0
6.9	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.6	—	—	—	—	84	0
7	—	—	—	1	84	1
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
7.9	1	—	1	2	84	0
6.7	—	—	1	2	67	1
6.6	—	—	1	3	67	1
6.3	—	—	1	1	79	0

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.7	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.6	—	—	1	1	84	0
7.5	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.7	—	—	—	1	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	1	45	1
7.9	—	—	—	—	84	0
6.5	—	—	—	—	45	1
7.5	—	—	—	—	62	0
6.3	—	—	2	2	80	0
6.5	—	—	1	2	84	0