Prediction Pays-Bas – Serbie: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

🇳🇱Pays-Bas

Full time

2 - 1

Ligue des nations Sunday, 4 October 2026 · 20:45

Serbie

PickPlus de 2.5 buts
Estimated probability71%

31'1-0Teun KoopmeinersNetherlands
35'1-1Mihajlo CvetkovicSerbiaAssist · Aleksa Terzić
HT1-1
72'2-1Joshua ZirkzeeNetherlandsAssist · Tijjani Reijnders

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Over 2.5 goals

Price at publication 1.40

Bet3651.36

Pinnacle1.36

1xBet1.36

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskOfficial lineups, starting goalkeepers, and defensive absences have not been verified.
RiskGakpo and Brobbey are mentioned as doubtful without federation confirmation.
RiskAn identical short three-day rest period for both teams.

View more data

RiskSerbia has shown an ability to equalize and create chances in transition despite its three defeats.
RiskComparable advanced statistics on chances, shots, and pressing have not been established.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms several major Dutch absences.
Invalidation conditionA change in goalkeeper or center-back is confirmed.
Invalidation conditionA major late withdrawal is announced.
Invalidation conditionThe match is ultimately not played at Philips Stadion.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineups reveal substantial Dutch rotation.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

The Netherlands have the best documented context going into the match: unbeaten in the group, 2-1 winners in Serbia on September 27, and playing at home at the Philips Stadion. Their ability to respond, particularly from set pieces, supports this reading.

Read the full analysis

The decisive limitation remains the uncertainty surrounding the lineups, goalkeepers, défense, and the condition of the key attackers after only three days of rest.

Recent form · Written before the match

The Netherlands remain unbeaten: 1-1 against Germany, 2-1 in Serbia, and 2-2 in Greece. Serbia lost all three of its matches: 1-2 against Greece, 1-2 against the Netherlands, and 0-2 in Germany.

These results are confirmed by UEFA for the 2026/27 group stage. Both teams played on October 1, then meet again on October 4: short and identical rest.

The partial historical coverage does not allow this to be made into an exhaustive list of the most recent matches or to compare advanced statistics. No verified xG, shot, or pressing indicator over a comparable period is available.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

Serbia 1-2 Netherlands, on September 27, 2026, in the 2026/27 Nations League group stage. This is the only recent head-to-head directly documented, also reported by the KNVB.

Its prédictive valeur is limited by the very short turnaround, the change of venue, and potentially different lineups; it does not constitute independent evidence of a lasting advantage.

Absences and returns

Cody Gakpo and Brian Brobbey are reported as having physical issues in a journalistic preview dated 2 October, without federation confirmation. Changes involving Ryan Gravenberch, Noa Lang and Tijjani Reijnders are being considered, but remain unconfirmed.

No Serbian absentee has been confirmed by a federation, club or press conference. Suspensions and federation medical reports remain to be verified.

Context & news

Group match, League A, Group A2, 4th matchday of the UEFA Nations League 2026/27, on 4 October 2026 at 18 h 45 UTC, at the Philips Stadion in Eindhoven. Main scenario: the Netherlands' unbeaten run, home advantage, recent victory against Serbia and the reactions observed against Greece favor the Netherlands, with a documented set-piece threat.

Counter-scenario: Serbia can tighten its defensive block, attack the spaces behind the full-backs and exploit Dutch rotation or absences; it already equalized in the previous match and created a dangerous counterattacking chance in Germany. The schedule is confirmed in the available information.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 14:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	9	1779	9
	44	1482	44

LineupsStarting XI

Pays-Bas4-2-3-1

CoachXavi

Serbie5-3-2

CoachV. Paunovic

Full squad

Bench

Pays-Bas

Substitutes12

Serbie

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Pays-Bas

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.81	0	0	0	0	90	0
7.08	0	0	0	4	90	0
8.46	1	0	3	3	90	0
6.88	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.26	0	0	0	0	59	0
6.84	0	0	1	2	58	0
6.43	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.74	0	1	2	5	82	1
6.5	0	0	0	2	58	0
7.02	0	0	0	2	46	0

See all (11)

Serbie

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.79	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.48	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.33	0	0	0	0	79	1
6.26	0	0	0	0	90	0
5.31	0	0	0	2	90	1
6.24	0	1	0	0	72	0
6.66	0	0	1	2	72	0
5.94	0	0	0	0	90	1
6.05	0	0	0	0	66	0
7.7	1	0	2	4	90	0
6.52	0	0	0	1	66	0

See all (11)

Events

14'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
30'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
31'GoalPays-Bas
35'Goal · Assist: Aleksa TerzićSerbie
45'Yellow card · FoulPays-Bas
45'SubstitutionPays-Bas
49'Yellow card · DissentSerbie
58'SubstitutionPays-Bas
58'SubstitutionPays-Bas
59'SubstitutionPays-Bas
66'SubstitutionSerbie
66'SubstitutionSerbie
72'SubstitutionSerbie
72'Goal · Assist: Tijjani ReijndersPays-Bas
72'SubstitutionSerbie
74'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
79'SubstitutionSerbie
82'SubstitutionPays-Bas
83'Yellow card · DissentSerbie

See all (19)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

Pays-BasSerbie

7Shots on target4

3Saves4

22Shots12

1Yellow cards↓4

6Corners3

14Fouls↓13

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

14Shots inside the box6

8Shots outside the box6

6Blocked shots0

9Shots off target8

1Offsides2

Passing

66%Possession34%

541Accurate passes249

618Passes324

Discipline

13Free kicks14

Head-to-head

L1–2last month · UEFA Nations League · League A - 2

RecordPays-Bas · 0W · 0D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

4 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Referee: Donatas Rumsas

All our results

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

Full time

🇳🇱Pays-Bas

Full time

2 - 1

Ligue des nations Sunday, 4 October 2026 · 20:45

Serbie

PickPlus de 2.5 buts
Estimated probability71%

31'1-0Teun KoopmeinersNetherlands
35'1-1Mihajlo CvetkovicSerbiaAssist · Aleksa Terzić
HT1-1
72'2-1Joshua ZirkzeeNetherlandsAssist · Tijjani Reijnders

Timestamped proof

Pronostic MarcelitoWon

Over 2.5 goals

Price at publication 1.40

Bet3651.36

Pinnacle1.36

1xBet1.36

Archived odds

Factors analysed before the event

RiskOfficial lineups, starting goalkeepers, and defensive absences have not been verified.
RiskGakpo and Brobbey are mentioned as doubtful without federation confirmation.
RiskAn identical short three-day rest period for both teams.

View more data

RiskSerbia has shown an ability to equalize and create chances in transition despite its three defeats.
RiskComparable advanced statistics on chances, shots, and pressing have not been established.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineup confirms several major Dutch absences.
Invalidation conditionA change in goalkeeper or center-back is confirmed.
Invalidation conditionA major late withdrawal is announced.
Invalidation conditionThe match is ultimately not played at Philips Stadion.
Invalidation conditionThe official lineups reveal substantial Dutch rotation.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Read the full analysis

The decisive limitation remains the uncertainty surrounding the lineups, goalkeepers, défense, and the condition of the key attackers after only three days of rest.

Recent form · Written before the match

The Netherlands remain unbeaten: 1-1 against Germany, 2-1 in Serbia, and 2-2 in Greece. Serbia lost all three of its matches: 1-2 against Greece, 1-2 against the Netherlands, and 0-2 in Germany.

These results are confirmed by UEFA for the 2026/27 group stage. Both teams played on October 1, then meet again on October 4: short and identical rest.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

Serbia 1-2 Netherlands, on September 27, 2026, in the 2026/27 Nations League group stage. This is the only recent head-to-head directly documented, also reported by the KNVB.

Its prédictive valeur is limited by the very short turnaround, the change of venue, and potentially different lineups; it does not constitute independent evidence of a lasting advantage.

Absences and returns

No Serbian absentee has been confirmed by a federation, club or press conference. Suspensions and federation medical reports remain to be verified.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final8 sections availableUpdated 29 Oct 2026, 14:11 UTC

Standings

Team	FIFA	FIFA points	Prev. rank
	9	1779	9
	44	1482	44

LineupsStarting XI

Pays-Bas4-2-3-1

CoachXavi

Serbie5-3-2

CoachV. Paunovic

Full squad

Bench

Pays-Bas

Substitutes12

Serbie

Substitutes12

Player statistics

Pays-Bas

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.56	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.81	0	0	0	0	90	0
7.08	0	0	0	4	90	0
8.46	1	0	3	3	90	0
6.88	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.26	0	0	0	0	59	0
6.84	0	0	1	2	58	0
6.43	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.74	0	1	2	5	82	1
6.5	0	0	0	2	58	0
7.02	0	0	0	2	46	0

See all (11)

Serbie

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
6.79	0	0	0	0	90	0
6.48	0	0	0	1	90	0
6.33	0	0	0	0	79	1
6.26	0	0	0	0	90	0
5.31	0	0	0	2	90	1
6.24	0	1	0	0	72	0
6.66	0	0	1	2	72	0
5.94	0	0	0	0	90	1
6.05	0	0	0	0	66	0
7.7	1	0	2	4	90	0
6.52	0	0	0	1	66	0

See all (11)

Events

14'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
30'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
31'GoalPays-Bas
35'Goal · Assist: Aleksa TerzićSerbie
45'Yellow card · FoulPays-Bas
45'SubstitutionPays-Bas
49'Yellow card · DissentSerbie
58'SubstitutionPays-Bas
58'SubstitutionPays-Bas
59'SubstitutionPays-Bas
66'SubstitutionSerbie
66'SubstitutionSerbie
72'SubstitutionSerbie
72'Goal · Assist: Tijjani ReijndersPays-Bas
72'SubstitutionSerbie
74'Yellow card · FoulSerbie
79'SubstitutionSerbie
82'SubstitutionPays-Bas
83'Yellow card · DissentSerbie

See all (19)

Comparative statistics16 metrics

Pays-BasSerbie

7Shots on target4

3Saves4

22Shots12

1Yellow cards↓4

6Corners3

14Fouls↓13

0Red cards↓0

All statistics (16)

Attack

14Shots inside the box6

8Shots outside the box6

6Blocked shots0

9Shots off target8

1Offsides2

Passing

66%Possession34%

541Accurate passes249

618Passes324

Discipline

13Free kicks14

Head-to-head

L1–2last month · UEFA Nations League · League A - 2

RecordPays-Bas · 0W · 0D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

4 October ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue des nations
Venue: Philips Stadion, Eindhoven
Referee: Donatas Rumsas

All our results