Prediction Toulouse – Le Havre: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

Full time

3 - 2

Ligue 1 Saturday, 19 September 2026 · 20:45 Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

Estimated probabilityD

HT0-0
49'1-0C. TengstedtFrom the penalty spotToulouse
51'2-0C. TengstedtToulouseAssist · T. Jorgensen
71'2-1J. MajaLe HavreAssist · S. Nakamura
79'3-1T. JorgensenToulouseAssist · C. Casseres
88'3-2A. SamattaLe Havre

Marcelito prediction

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Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Toulouse: 0-2 home defeat against Lyon on 22 August 2026, 2-2 draw at Brest on 29 August, 0-1 defeat against Lille on 3 September, and 2-2 draw at Lorient on 12 September; no wins in these four available matches. Le Havre: the provided cache mentions a 1-1 draw at Lyon on 29 August, a 0-1 defeat against Monaco on 23 August, and a 1-2 defeat against Brest on 5 September, but the official HAC page still listed them as upcoming; this contradiction remains unresolved.

Both teams played on 12 September, seven days before the match; Toulouse travelled to Lorient. No comparable xG, shot volume, or pressing indicator is available over a homogeneous period.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

The Toulouse FC document indicates that, in previous home matches against Le Havre in Ligue 1, Toulouse had 12 wins, 3 draws and 1 loss; the last defeat mentioned was a 1-2 at the Stadium on 5 November 2023. This precedent, published approximately ten months before the research, is not very prédictive because the season, coaches and squads have changed.

Absences and returns

Le Havre confirmed as of 11 September the long-term absence of its goalkeeper Lionel Mpasi. The same article also announces the absences of Stephan Zagadou, Felix Mambimbi, Rassoul Ndiaye and Timothée Pembélé, who were injured against Brest, as well as those of Paul Argney and Junior Mwanga; Junior Mwanga is suspended.

No equivalent medical update or official Toulouse squad has been verified. The progression of Le Havre's injuries after 12 September and Gallon's actual status remain unknown.

Context & news

Favorable scenario for Toulouse: playing at home could support a more proactive approach, with hypothetical exploitation of set-piece situations and crosses; Toulouse scored twice in Brest and then twice in Lorient. Favorable scenario for Le Havre: a cautious block, transitions and set pieces could benefit from potential Toulouse imbalances.

Conversely, Le Havre’s absences, the change of goalkeeper and defensive coordination may weaken defensive coverage of crosses and corners. The progression, pressing and transition mechanisms specific to both teams are not sufficiently documented.

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 31 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	4	+5	10	3	1	0	7	2	WWDW
2	4	+4	10	3	1	0	6	2	DWWW
3	4	+3	10	3	1	0	8	5	WWWD
4	4	+4	8	2	2	0	6	2	DWDW
5	4	+4	8	2	2	0	6	2	DWWD
6	4	+1	7	2	1	1	9	8	DWWL
7	4	0	5	1	2	1	6	6	LWDD
8	4	0	5	1	2	1	6	6	WLDD
9	4	0	5	1	2	1	4	4	DWLD
10	4	+1	4	1	1	2	8	7	DLLW
11	4	-1	4	1	1	2	4	5	DLWL
12	4	-5	4	1	1	2	4	9	LLWD
13	4	0	3	1	0	3	6	6	LLLW
14	4	-1	3	0	3	1	7	8	DDLD
15	4	-6	3	1	0	3	5	11	WLLL
16	4	-2	2	0	2	2	2	4	DLDL
17	4	-3	2	0	2	2	4	7	DLDL
18	4	-4	2	0	2	2	1	5	LDLD

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Toulouse4-4-2

CoachJens Askou

Le Havre3-4-2-1

CoachDidier Digard

Full squad

Bench

Toulouse

Substitutes9

Le Havre

Substitutes9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

44 matches
44 matches
44 matches
34 matches
34 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

34 matches
34 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches

CardsCards

34 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches

Player statistics

Toulouse

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

See all (11)

Le Havre

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

See all (11)

Events

34'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
49'PenaltyToulouse
51'Goal · Assist: T. JorgensenToulouse
58'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
69'SubstitutionLe Havre
69'SubstitutionLe Havre
70'SubstitutionLe Havre
71'Goal · Assist: S. NakamuraLe Havre
72'SubstitutionToulouse
72'SubstitutionToulouse
72'SubstitutionToulouse
74'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
79'Goal · Assist: C. CasseresToulouse
81'Yellow card · FoulLe Havre
82'SubstitutionLe Havre
82'SubstitutionLe Havre
88'GoalLe Havre

See all (17)

Comparative statistics18 metricsPartial

ToulouseLe Havre

5Shots on target7

14Shots18

17Fouls↓15

6Corners7

53%Possession47%

3Yellow cards↓1

—Red cards—

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.95Expected goals2.34

4Shots off target6

5Blocked shots5

10Shots inside the box12

4Shots outside the box6

3Offsides1

-0.97Goals prevented-0.97

Passing

86%Pass accuracy87%

477Passes406

409Accurate passes354

Defence

5Saves2

Recent formLigue 1

Toulouse

DLDLD

vs Lorient2–2D
vs Lille0–1L
vs Stade Brestois 292–2D
vs Lyon0–2L
vs Nantes0–0D

Le Havre

DLDLW

vs Angers0–0D
vs Stade Brestois 291–2L
vs Lyon1–1D
vs Monaco0–1L
vs Lorient2–0W

Head-to-head

L1–28 months ago · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 22
D0–011 months ago · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
W4–123 Feb 2025 · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

RecordToulouse · 1W · 1D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

19 September ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

All our results

Loading match details…

Full time

3 - 2

Ligue 1 Saturday, 19 September 2026 · 20:45 Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

Estimated probabilityD

HT0-0
49'1-0C. TengstedtFrom the penalty spotToulouse
51'2-0C. TengstedtToulouseAssist · T. Jorgensen
71'2-1J. MajaLe HavreAssist · S. Nakamura
79'3-1T. JorgensenToulouseAssist · C. Casseres
88'3-2A. SamattaLe Havre

Marcelito prediction

This prediction is for members

Create your free account to see the pick, the odds and the probability for every match.

Every prediction, free
Pick, odds and probability
No card required

Create my free account I already have an account

18+ only.

Detailed analysis

Written before the match

Analysis based on bookmaker coverage and available form data.

Read the full analysis

Recent form · Written before the match

Both teams played on 12 September, seven days before the match; Toulouse travelled to Lorient. No comparable xG, shot volume, or pressing indicator is available over a homogeneous period.

Head-to-head · Written before the match

Absences and returns

No equivalent medical update or official Toulouse squad has been verified. The progression of Le Havre's injuries after 12 September and Gallon's actual status remain unknown.

Context & news

Match data

Data overviewPartial data

Final10 sections availableUpdated 31 Oct 2026, 07:01 UTC

Standings

#	P	GD	Pts	W	D	L	BP	BC	Form
1	4	+5	10	3	1	0	7	2	WWDW
2	4	+4	10	3	1	0	6	2	DWWW
3	4	+3	10	3	1	0	8	5	WWWD
4	4	+4	8	2	2	0	6	2	DWDW
5	4	+4	8	2	2	0	6	2	DWWD
6	4	+1	7	2	1	1	9	8	DWWL
7	4	0	5	1	2	1	6	6	LWDD
8	4	0	5	1	2	1	6	6	WLDD
9	4	0	5	1	2	1	4	4	DWLD
10	4	+1	4	1	1	2	8	7	DLLW
11	4	-1	4	1	1	2	4	5	DLWL
12	4	-5	4	1	1	2	4	9	LLWD
13	4	0	3	1	0	3	6	6	LLLW
14	4	-1	3	0	3	1	7	8	DDLD
15	4	-6	3	1	0	3	5	11	WLLL
16	4	-2	2	0	2	2	2	4	DLDL
17	4	-3	2	0	2	2	4	7	DLDL
18	4	-4	2	0	2	2	1	5	LDLD

See full table

LineupsStarting XI

Toulouse4-4-2

CoachJens Askou

Le Havre3-4-2-1

CoachDidier Digard

Full squad

Bench

Toulouse

Substitutes9

Le Havre

Substitutes9

Top players

Meilleurs buteursGoals

44 matches
44 matches
44 matches
34 matches
34 matches

Meilleurs passeursAssists

34 matches
34 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches

CardsCards

34 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches
24 matches

Player statistics

Toulouse

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

See all (11)

Le Havre

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

See all (11)

Events

34'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
49'PenaltyToulouse
51'Goal · Assist: T. JorgensenToulouse
58'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
69'SubstitutionLe Havre
69'SubstitutionLe Havre
70'SubstitutionLe Havre
71'Goal · Assist: S. NakamuraLe Havre
72'SubstitutionToulouse
72'SubstitutionToulouse
72'SubstitutionToulouse
74'Yellow card · FoulToulouse
79'Goal · Assist: C. CasseresToulouse
81'Yellow card · FoulLe Havre
82'SubstitutionLe Havre
82'SubstitutionLe Havre
88'GoalLe Havre

See all (17)

Comparative statistics18 metricsPartial

ToulouseLe Havre

5Shots on target7

14Shots18

17Fouls↓15

6Corners7

53%Possession47%

3Yellow cards↓1

—Red cards—

All statistics (18)

Attack

1.95Expected goals2.34

4Shots off target6

5Blocked shots5

10Shots inside the box12

4Shots outside the box6

3Offsides1

-0.97Goals prevented-0.97

Passing

86%Pass accuracy87%

477Passes406

409Accurate passes354

Defence

5Saves2

Recent formLigue 1

Toulouse

DLDLD

vs Lorient2–2D
vs Lille0–1L
vs Stade Brestois 292–2D
vs Lyon0–2L
vs Nantes0–0D

Le Havre

DLDLW

vs Angers0–0D
vs Stade Brestois 291–2L
vs Lyon1–1D
vs Monaco0–1L
vs Lorient2–0W

Head-to-head

L1–28 months ago · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 22
D0–011 months ago · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 11
W4–123 Feb 2025 · Ligue 1 · Regular Season - 23

RecordToulouse · 1W · 1D · 1L

Verify this result

This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.

19 September ledger All our results

Match information

Competition: Ligue 1
Venue: Stadium Municipal, Toulouse

All our results

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82

Rating	G	A	SoT	Shots	Min
8	—	0	—	—	90	0
7.2	—	0	—	—	72	0
6.2	—	0	—	—	90	1
7.3	—	0	—	—	90	0
6.3	—	0	—	—	90	1
9.5	1	1	1	1	90	0
6.9	—	0	1	1	90	1
7.3	—	1	—	—	90	0
6.9	—	0	—	2	72	0
6.5	—	0	1	1	90	0
8.3	2	0	2	4	72	0

Rating	G	SoT	Shots	Min
6.5	—	—	—	90
7.2	—	—	—	70
6.3	—	—	1	90
5.9	—	—	—	90
6.6	—	—	1	69
6.3	—	—	—	90
6.2	—	—	2	82
6.9	—	—	—	90
7	—	2	2	69
7.5	1	2	3	90
7.5	1	2	3	82