Truro City wins
Price at publication 1.70
Archived odds
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Truro City
Merthyr TownTimestamped proof
Truro City wins
Price at publication 1.70
Archived odds
Truro City has home advantage in an FA Cup replay, where the 1-1 draw in the first leg leaves qualification completely open.
Read the full analysisTruro City has home advantage in an FA Cup replay, where the 1-1 draw in the first leg leaves qualification completely open. Its best-documented mechanism is the threat from set pieces, crosses and second balls, but its recent winless run and Jaimie Cogman’s effectiveness in the first leg limit confidence in a home dominance.
Truro City comes into this replay having gone three competitive matches without a win: a 1-1 draw at Merthyr Town on 19 September 2026, a 0-1 defeat against Salisbury on 15 September and a 1-1 draw against Walton & Hersham on 12 September, for 3 goals scored and 3 conceded. Merthyr Town drew 1-1 against Truro on 19 September, drew 0-0 at Scarborough on 12 September, won 1-0 at Chester on 8 September and beat Macclesfield 2-1 on 5 September, before losing 1-2 at Buxton on 31 August.
Truro City is therefore more inconsistent in the immediately available results, while Merthyr shows a more stable preceding run. Shots, possession, pressing and xG are not available in the direct sources consulted.
Both teams play again three days after the first leg; Merthyr must also travel from South Wales to Truro, without a quantified travel burden.
On 19 September 2026, at Penydarren Park, Merthyr Town and Truro City drew 1-1 in the first leg: Elis Watts scored for Merthyr in the 81st minute, then Tom Harrison equalized in added time, according to Truro City's match report published on 19 September 2026. The Truro club also recalls a 5-2 Merthyr victory in the FA Cup during the 2022-23 season, at Penydarren Park, mentioned on 18 and 19 September 2026.
The recent 1-1 is the most relevant precedent, but it does not separate the teams; the 5-2 has limited historical relevance because the squads, coaches and levels of form have changed.
No official list of absentees, suspended players or doubtful starters had been published before the deadline. Christian Oxlade-Chamberlain went off injured in the 30th minute of the first leg, but his availability for the replay remains unknown.
Jaimie Cogman was decisive in Merthyr’s goal in the first leg; his starting place for the replay has not been confirmed. The absence of a published list should not be interpreted as an absence of injured players.
The match is a knockout replay after the 1-1 draw in the first leg: the winner qualifies for the third qualifying round and the qualifying club was due to receive the announced £3,375 prize. Scenario favorable to Truro: returning home may allow them to reproduce their dangerous set-piece and crossing situations, notably those described in the first leg involving Connor Riley-Lowe, Tom Harrison and the crossbar hit from a combination involving Oxlade-Chamberlain and Johnson-Fisher.
Scenario favorable to Merthyr: their late goal in the first leg and defensive resilience may support an approach based on transitions and match management, but this reading is not measured by shooting or transition data. The change of venue to Truro favors the home side, while Merthyr’s trip comes three days after the first leg.
Match identified: FA Cup second qualifying round replay, Tuesday 22 September 2026, kick-off at 19:45 British time, i.e. 18:45 UTC, at Truro City Stadium in Truro; Truro City are the home team and the venue is not neutral. No official lineup for the replay had been published in the sources consulted before the cutoff time.
The starters and substitutes from the first leg are known, but Truro had made five changes compared with their previous match: this past rotation does not make it possible to infer the replay lineup.
Pending
Truro CityMerthyr Town
RecordTruro City · 1W · 2D · 0L
This fixture is over and appears in the public ledger with its result, even though no bet was recommended here.