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MMA
Welterweight
Meta APEX, Las Vegas, NV, USA

Jacobe Smith
Operator odds are not available right now
Median operator odds, shown for information only.

« Rudeboy »
Budokan Martial Arts Academy

« Cobe »
Fortis MMA
Each axis comes from a measured career average, scaled to a fixed 0–100 range.
Median operator odds, shown for information only.
Fight announced for UFC Vegas 123, at welterweight, on October 31, 2026 in Las Vegas; the venue and matchup were confirmed by une source spécialisée on October 20, 2026, and the weight class and records were confirmed by FightingData on October 30, 2026. Smith is announced at 13-0 and Brown at 20-8.
Smith comes in on less than two weeks’ notice after a fight on October 3; his recent profile is therefore difficult to extrapolate. Brown has 22 recorded UFC fights compared with 4 for Smith, with an average duration of 10:30 compared with 3:42.
Smith’s recent level of opposition appears lower than Brown’s, but this comparison depends on the methodology used by FightingData.
No previous Brown-Smith bout was identified in the sources consulted. This absence prevents any direct assessment of their interaction in an actual fight; the analysis therefore relies on their styles and previous opponents.
The official weigh-in for Brown and Smith had not been established by the deadline, nor had the actual weight reached. Difficult weight cut, injury, or medical condition: no reliable public information allows a conclusion.
The precise reason for Carlos Leal’s withdrawal remains unknown. The welterweight division is confirmed; height, reach, and stance data are secondary and need confirmation: Brown 1.91 m, 1.98 m reach, orthodox; Smith 1.78 m, 1.83 m reach, southpaw.
Smith can close the distance, chain takedowns together, and exploit his control against the cage or on the ground: his recorded UFC statistics indicate 5.1 takedowns per 15 minutes, 83.3% accuracy, and 100% takedown défense. He has finished all four of his UFC fights, including three by KO/TKO and one by rear-naked choke; his last three ended before the end of the second round.
Conversely, Brown can keep the fight at range thanks to his height and reach, use the jab and exit strikes, then accumulate points. He went three full rounds against Kevin Holland in April 2026, and his UFC fights last much longer on average, but his actual five-round experience remains unknown.
The scenario favorable to Smith is an early finish after applying pressure and wrestling; the scenario favorable to Brown is defending the entries, an extended stand-up fight, and a decision.
Individual matchup confirmed between Randy Brown and Jacobe Smith for UFC Vegas 123. Jacobe Smith replaced Carlos Leal, whose withdrawal was confirmed on October 20, 2026 by une source spécialisée.
The number of rounds has not been established, and the exact time of this fight, distinct from the start of the card, remains to be confirmed.
Prediction: Jacobe Smith · Fight winner. Estimated probability: 72 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.
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