Prediction Karen Khachanov – Carlos Alcaraz: analysis, odds and forecast

MARCELITOSports predictions

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MARCELITOSports predictions

RUSNo.24 ATP

Erste Bank Open

Final

Round 1Men’s singles

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 15:30

Vienna

ESPNo.3 ATP

Marcelito prediction

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Comparative statistics

KhachanovAlcaraz

World rankingNo.24No.3
Ranking points2,0305,610
Win rate (career)58 %82 %
Wins (career)340313
Titles727

Detailed analysis

The match is probably a first-round men’s singles match at the ATP 500 in Vienna, on indoor hard court, but the specific format and order of play have not been established. Alcaraz is listed as the No. 2 seed in Vienna. He is coming off a loss to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai, 5-7, 6-7(4), while Khachanov probably arrived after a loss to Alex de Minaur in Shanghai, 3-6, 4-6, preceded by wins against Arthur Fery, 7-6(6), 6-7(5), 7-6(2), then Adrian Mannarino, 6-2, 6-4. Khachanov’s results come from a page showing freshness and ranking inconsistencies, and exhaustive coverage of the runs has not been verified.Read the full analysis

Recent form

He is coming off a loss to Zizou Bergs in Shanghai, 5-7, 6-7(4), while Khachanov probably arrived after a loss to Alex de Minaur in Shanghai, 3-6, 4-6, preceded by wins against Arthur Fery, 7-6(6), 6-7(5), 7-6(2), then Adrian Mannarino, 6-2, 6-4. Khachanov’s results come from a page showing freshness and ranking inconsistencies, and exhaustive coverage of the runs has not been verified.

Head-to-head

The six previous reported head-to-head meetings were all won by Alcaraz. The latest, in Doha in 2026, began with a tiebreak loss before a 6-4, 6-3 victory.

This record supports the scenario favorable to Alcaraz, but the complete details of the recent head-to-head meetings and their coverage by date, tournament, and set score have not been fully verified in a single official source.

Line-up and availability

Men’s singles likely, first round of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna. Alcaraz is confirmed as the No. 2 seed by the October 15 publication.

The matchup cannot be confirmed as a match at the 2026 Swiss Indoors Basel, whose published list on October 13 mentions neither Alcaraz nor Khachanov. Time to be confirmed.

Recent form

Karen Khachanov3 W - 2 L

23 Oct 2026vs Alexander Bublik6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(5)L
22 Oct 2026vs Tomas Machac6-2 4-6 7-6(7)W
20 Oct 2026vs Rei Sakamoto6-2 6-4W
13 Oct 2026vs Alex de Minaur3-6 4-6L
11 Oct 2026vs Adrian Mannarino6-2 6-4W

Carlos Alcaraz4 W - 1 L

12 Oct 2026vs Zizou Bergs5-7 6-7(4)L
10 Oct 2026vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 6-3W
06 Oct 2026vs Jiri Lehecka7-6(4) 6-4W
05 Oct 2026vs Jaume Munar5-7 6-3 6-1W
04 Oct 2026vs Denis Shapovalov7-6(3) 2-1W

Surface & conditions

Erste Bank Open

Court: Centre Court

ATP ranking

#	Player	Points
1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
…
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920

See the full ranking

1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
6	Flavio Cobolli	3,690
7	Felix Auger-Aliassime	3,515
8	Arthur Fils	3,425
9	Frances Tiafoe	3,380
10	Alex de Minaur	3,280
11	Rafael Jodar	3,234
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495
17	Brandon Nakashima	2,375
18	Learner Tien	2,345
19	Francisco Cerundolo	2,310
20	Alexander Bublik	2,285
21	Jiri Lehecka	2,275
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920
27	Alexander Blockx	1,790
28	Hubert Hurkacz	1,585
29	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1,565
30	Alejandro Tabilo	1,565
31	Valentin Vacherot	1,480
32	Ignacio Buse	1,445
33	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1,430
34	Alex Michelsen	1,410
35	Arthur Fery	1,406
36	Matteo Arnaldi	1,311
37	Botic Van De Zandschulp	1,295
38	Ugo Humbert	1,270
39	Zizou Bergs	1,260
40	Joao Fonseca	1,250
41	Cameron Norrie	1,195
42	Daniel Merida	1,195
43	Mariano Navone	1,164
44	Arthur Gea	1,160
45	Quentin Halys	1,127
46	Luca Van Assche	1,105
47	Jan-Lennard Struff	1,084
48	Matteo Berrettini	1,083
49	Sebastian Baez	1,044
50	Tallon Griekspoor	1,035
51	Thiago Agustin Tirante	1,024
52	Denis Shapovalov	1,015
53	Nuno Borges	1,000
54	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1,000
55	Raphael Collignon	993
56	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	947
57	Jaime Faria	941
58	Miomir Kecmanovic	930
59	Yannick Hanfmann	923
60	Daniel Altmaier	874
61	Arthur Rinderknech	870
62	Ethan Quinn	861
63	Fabian Marozsan	860
64	Vit Kopriva	844
65	Jaume Munar	835
66	Mattia Bellucci	824
67	Martin Landaluce	822
68	James Duckworth	814
69	Roman Safiullin	807
70	Facundo Diaz Acosta	807
71	Tomas Machac	804
72	Titouan Droguet	801
73	Adrian Mannarino	783
74	Pablo Carreno Busta	773
75	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	770
76	Zachary Svajda	759
77	Roman Andres Burruchaga	754
78	Hamad Medjedovic	751
79	Kyrian Jacquet	741
80	Alex Molcan	734
81	Sebastian Korda	730
82	Kamil Majchrzak	725
83	Damir Dzumhur	712
84	Aleksandar Kovacevic	703
85	Rinky Hijikata	689
86	Jacob Fearnley	686
87	Chak Lam Coleman Wong	678
88	Marcos Giron	676
89	Marco Trungelliti	670
90	Terence Atmane	666
91	Lorenzo Sonego	658
92	Bu Yunchaokete	652
93	Dino Prizmic	638
94	Jenson Brooksby	638
95	Nikoloz Basilashvili	631
96	Marin Cilic	629
97	Toby Samuel	625
98	Adam Walton	619
99	Benjamin Bonzi	617
100	Henrique Rocha	596
101	Michael Zheng	594
102	Jesper de Jong	591
103	Corentin Moutet	590
104	Zsombor Piros	590
105	Martin Damm	582
106	Sho Shimabukuro	580
107	Wu Yibing	571
108	Lloyd Harris	571
109	Aleksandr Shevchenko	559
110	Hugo Gaston	548
111	Thiago Seyboth Wild	545
112	Dane Sweeny	538
113	Gustavo Heide	535
114	Jan Choinski	533
115	Nicolas Mejia	519
116	Aleksandar Vukic	507
117	Valentin Royer	506
118	Christopher O'Connell	499
119	Hugo Dellien	498
120	Dalibor Svrcina	494
121	Otto Virtanen	493
122	Sebastian Ofner	491
123	Emilio Nava	484
124	Grigor Dimitrov	472
125	Rei Sakamoto	469
126	Pedro Martinez	462
127	Alexei Popyrin	458
128	Francisco Comesana	455
129	Shintaro Mochizuki	451
130	Alexandre Muller	441
131	Nishesh Basavareddy	432
132	Stefanos Sakellaridis	431
133	Max Alcala Gurri	430
134	Clement Chidekh	428
135	Borna Gojo	416
136	Laslo Djere	412
137	Jurij Rodionov	411
138	Matej Dodig	410
139	Andrea Pellegrino	404
140	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	403
141	Tristan Schoolkate	403
142	Federico Cina	401
143	Marton Fucsovics	400
144	Darwin Blanch	397
145	Vilius Gaubas	396
146	Ilia Simakin	396
147	Michael Mmoh	386
148	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	385
149	Gabriel Diallo	382
150	Elmer Moller	378

Players & profiles

No.24 ATP

Age: 30 years
Height: 1,98 m
Weight: 87 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: Moscow, Russia

No.3 ATP

Age: 23 years
Height: 1,83 m
Weight: 74 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: El Palmar, Murcia, Spain

Career record

	Khachanov	Alcaraz
2026 season · W / L	27 - 22	33 - 5
Wins / Losses	340 - 247	313 - 70
Win rate	58 %	82 %
Titles 2026	0	3
Titles	7	27

Keys to the match

Favorable scenario for Alcaraz: his reported 6-0 head-to-head record, variety, and return game may neutralize Khachanov’s first strike, despite his recent loss in Shanghai and the uncertainty surrounding his wrist.
Favorable scenario for Khachanov: his serve and first-strike game may shorten rallies on indoor hard courts, with a run probably highlighted by a US Open semifinal and several hard-court wins; this assessment is limited by the unfavorable head-to-head record and the incompletely verified immediate preparation.

Players & fitness

Alcaraz returned on August 23 from a right wrist injury that had sidelined him since April.
His current medical status, like Khachanov’s, is unconfirmed before the match.
No documented statistics for serving, returning, break points, or duration over the relevant period have been established.

Alerts & record

Create a selection alert Our predictions are settled publicly — view the record

A probability is never a guarantee of outcome. If you bet, only wager what you can afford to lose.

Analyses are generated by our model and guarantee no outcome. Please gamble responsibly.

Loading match details…

RUSNo.24 ATP

Erste Bank Open

Final

Round 1Men’s singles

Tuesday, 27 October 2026 · 15:30

Vienna

ESPNo.3 ATP

Marcelito prediction

This prediction is for members

Create your free account to see the pick, the odds and the probability for every match.

Every prediction, free
Pick, odds and probability
No card required

Create my free account I already have an account

18+ only.

Comparative statistics

KhachanovAlcaraz

World rankingNo.24No.3
Ranking points2,0305,610
Win rate (career)58 %82 %
Wins (career)340313
Titles727

Detailed analysis

Recent form

Head-to-head

The six previous reported head-to-head meetings were all won by Alcaraz. The latest, in Doha in 2026, began with a tiebreak loss before a 6-4, 6-3 victory.

Line-up and availability

Men’s singles likely, first round of the Erste Bank Open in Vienna. Alcaraz is confirmed as the No. 2 seed by the October 15 publication.

The matchup cannot be confirmed as a match at the 2026 Swiss Indoors Basel, whose published list on October 13 mentions neither Alcaraz nor Khachanov. Time to be confirmed.

Recent form

Karen Khachanov3 W - 2 L

23 Oct 2026vs Alexander Bublik6-4 6-7(5) 6-7(5)L
22 Oct 2026vs Tomas Machac6-2 4-6 7-6(7)W
20 Oct 2026vs Rei Sakamoto6-2 6-4W
13 Oct 2026vs Alex de Minaur3-6 4-6L
11 Oct 2026vs Adrian Mannarino6-2 6-4W

Carlos Alcaraz4 W - 1 L

12 Oct 2026vs Zizou Bergs5-7 6-7(4)L
10 Oct 2026vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 6-3W
06 Oct 2026vs Jiri Lehecka7-6(4) 6-4W
05 Oct 2026vs Jaume Munar5-7 6-3 6-1W
04 Oct 2026vs Denis Shapovalov7-6(3) 2-1W

Surface & conditions

Erste Bank Open

Court: Centre Court

ATP ranking

#	Player	Points
1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
…
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920

See the full ranking

1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
6	Flavio Cobolli	3,690
7	Felix Auger-Aliassime	3,515
8	Arthur Fils	3,425
9	Frances Tiafoe	3,380
10	Alex de Minaur	3,280
11	Rafael Jodar	3,234
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495
17	Brandon Nakashima	2,375
18	Learner Tien	2,345
19	Francisco Cerundolo	2,310
20	Alexander Bublik	2,285
21	Jiri Lehecka	2,275
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920
27	Alexander Blockx	1,790
28	Hubert Hurkacz	1,585
29	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1,565
30	Alejandro Tabilo	1,565
31	Valentin Vacherot	1,480
32	Ignacio Buse	1,445
33	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1,430
34	Alex Michelsen	1,410
35	Arthur Fery	1,406
36	Matteo Arnaldi	1,311
37	Botic Van De Zandschulp	1,295
38	Ugo Humbert	1,270
39	Zizou Bergs	1,260
40	Joao Fonseca	1,250
41	Cameron Norrie	1,195
42	Daniel Merida	1,195
43	Mariano Navone	1,164
44	Arthur Gea	1,160
45	Quentin Halys	1,127
46	Luca Van Assche	1,105
47	Jan-Lennard Struff	1,084
48	Matteo Berrettini	1,083
49	Sebastian Baez	1,044
50	Tallon Griekspoor	1,035
51	Thiago Agustin Tirante	1,024
52	Denis Shapovalov	1,015
53	Nuno Borges	1,000
54	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1,000
55	Raphael Collignon	993
56	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	947
57	Jaime Faria	941
58	Miomir Kecmanovic	930
59	Yannick Hanfmann	923
60	Daniel Altmaier	874
61	Arthur Rinderknech	870
62	Ethan Quinn	861
63	Fabian Marozsan	860
64	Vit Kopriva	844
65	Jaume Munar	835
66	Mattia Bellucci	824
67	Martin Landaluce	822
68	James Duckworth	814
69	Roman Safiullin	807
70	Facundo Diaz Acosta	807
71	Tomas Machac	804
72	Titouan Droguet	801
73	Adrian Mannarino	783
74	Pablo Carreno Busta	773
75	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	770
76	Zachary Svajda	759
77	Roman Andres Burruchaga	754
78	Hamad Medjedovic	751
79	Kyrian Jacquet	741
80	Alex Molcan	734
81	Sebastian Korda	730
82	Kamil Majchrzak	725
83	Damir Dzumhur	712
84	Aleksandar Kovacevic	703
85	Rinky Hijikata	689
86	Jacob Fearnley	686
87	Chak Lam Coleman Wong	678
88	Marcos Giron	676
89	Marco Trungelliti	670
90	Terence Atmane	666
91	Lorenzo Sonego	658
92	Bu Yunchaokete	652
93	Dino Prizmic	638
94	Jenson Brooksby	638
95	Nikoloz Basilashvili	631
96	Marin Cilic	629
97	Toby Samuel	625
98	Adam Walton	619
99	Benjamin Bonzi	617
100	Henrique Rocha	596
101	Michael Zheng	594
102	Jesper de Jong	591
103	Corentin Moutet	590
104	Zsombor Piros	590
105	Martin Damm	582
106	Sho Shimabukuro	580
107	Wu Yibing	571
108	Lloyd Harris	571
109	Aleksandr Shevchenko	559
110	Hugo Gaston	548
111	Thiago Seyboth Wild	545
112	Dane Sweeny	538
113	Gustavo Heide	535
114	Jan Choinski	533
115	Nicolas Mejia	519
116	Aleksandar Vukic	507
117	Valentin Royer	506
118	Christopher O'Connell	499
119	Hugo Dellien	498
120	Dalibor Svrcina	494
121	Otto Virtanen	493
122	Sebastian Ofner	491
123	Emilio Nava	484
124	Grigor Dimitrov	472
125	Rei Sakamoto	469
126	Pedro Martinez	462
127	Alexei Popyrin	458
128	Francisco Comesana	455
129	Shintaro Mochizuki	451
130	Alexandre Muller	441
131	Nishesh Basavareddy	432
132	Stefanos Sakellaridis	431
133	Max Alcala Gurri	430
134	Clement Chidekh	428
135	Borna Gojo	416
136	Laslo Djere	412
137	Jurij Rodionov	411
138	Matej Dodig	410
139	Andrea Pellegrino	404
140	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	403
141	Tristan Schoolkate	403
142	Federico Cina	401
143	Marton Fucsovics	400
144	Darwin Blanch	397
145	Vilius Gaubas	396
146	Ilia Simakin	396
147	Michael Mmoh	386
148	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	385
149	Gabriel Diallo	382
150	Elmer Moller	378

Players & profiles

No.24 ATP

Age: 30 years
Height: 1,98 m
Weight: 87 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: Moscow, Russia

No.3 ATP

Age: 23 years
Height: 1,83 m
Weight: 74 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: El Palmar, Murcia, Spain

Career record

	Khachanov	Alcaraz
2026 season · W / L	27 - 22	33 - 5
Wins / Losses	340 - 247	313 - 70
Win rate	58 %	82 %
Titles 2026	0	3
Titles	7	27

Keys to the match

Favorable scenario for Alcaraz: his reported 6-0 head-to-head record, variety, and return game may neutralize Khachanov’s first strike, despite his recent loss in Shanghai and the uncertainty surrounding his wrist.
Favorable scenario for Khachanov: his serve and first-strike game may shorten rallies on indoor hard courts, with a run probably highlighted by a US Open semifinal and several hard-court wins; this assessment is limited by the unfavorable head-to-head record and the incompletely verified immediate preparation.

Players & fitness

Alcaraz returned on August 23 from a right wrist injury that had sidelined him since April.
His current medical status, like Khachanov’s, is unconfirmed before the match.
No documented statistics for serving, returning, break points, or duration over the relevant period have been established.

Alerts & record

Create a selection alert Our predictions are settled publicly — view the record

A probability is never a guarantee of outcome. If you bet, only wager what you can afford to lose.

Analyses are generated by our model and guarantee no outcome. Please gamble responsibly.