Prediction Tommy Paul – Carlos Alcaraz: analysis, odds and forecast

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MARCELITOSports predictions

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

USANo.14 ATP

Erste Bank Open

Quarter-finalMen’s singles

Friday, 30 October 2026 · 15:00

Vienna

ESPNo.3 ATP

Marcelito prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Match winner

Observed odds1.26

Win probability

79%

Operator odds are not available right now

Prediction summary

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz · Match winner. Estimated probability: 79.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

See more details

Comparative statistics

PaulAlcaraz

World rankingNo.14No.3
Ranking points2,6755,610
Win rate (career)61 %82 %
Wins (career)249313
Titles527

Detailed analysis

Likely event: 2026 Erste Bank Open in Vienna, men's singles, quarterfinals, indoor hard court. Alcaraz defeated Karen Khachanov and then Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-1, 7-6(11), in 1 h 40. Paul defeated Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-2 and then Luciano Darderi 6-1, 6-1, in 48 minutes. The detailed score of Alcaraz's first match is not established, so neither player's run can be described as a tournament without losing a set.Read the full analysis

Recent form

Likely event: 2026 Erste Bank Open in Vienna, men's singles, quarterfinals, indoor hard court. Alcaraz defeated Karen Khachanov and then Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-1, 7-6(11), in 1 h 40.

Paul defeated Andrey Rublev 7-5, 6-2 and then Luciano Darderi 6-1, 6-1, in 48 minutes. The detailed score of Alcaraz's first match is not established, so neither player's run can be described as a tournament without losing a set.

Head-to-head

The announced head-to-head record favors Carlos Alcaraz, 7-2. A recent documented meeting took place in the US Open round of 16 on September 6, 2026, but the dossier does not provide the final score.

This record supports Alcaraz's historical advantage, without precisely measuring current form on indoor hard courts or the conditions of this match.

Line-up and availability

Men's singles: Tommy Paul versus Carlos Alcaraz. The announced time is 14:00 UTC, but it remains provisional and depends on the previous match. The tournament identity indicated in the request must be corrected or confirmed.

Market reading

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz · Match winner. Estimated probability: 79.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Recent form

Tommy Paul4 W - 1 L

29 Oct 2026vs Luciano Darderi6-1 6-1W
27 Oct 2026vs Andrey Rublev7-5 6-2W
24 Oct 2026vs Taylor Fritz3-6 5-7L
23 Oct 2026vs Corentin Moutet6-4 3-6 6-3W
21 Oct 2026vs Benjamin Bonzi6-4 6-7(4) 6-3W

Carlos Alcaraz4 W - 1 L

29 Oct 2026vs Nikoloz Basilashvili6-1 7-6(11)W
27 Oct 2026vs Karen Khachanov6-4 7-6(5)W
12 Oct 2026vs Zizou Bergs5-7 6-7(4)L
10 Oct 2026vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 6-3W
06 Oct 2026vs Jiri Lehecka7-6(4) 6-4W

Surface & conditions

Erste Bank Open

Court: Centre Court
Forecast: 12 °CSunny spells

ATP ranking

#	Player	Points
1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
…
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495

See the full ranking

1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
6	Flavio Cobolli	3,690
7	Felix Auger-Aliassime	3,515
8	Arthur Fils	3,425
9	Frances Tiafoe	3,380
10	Alex de Minaur	3,280
11	Rafael Jodar	3,234
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495
17	Brandon Nakashima	2,375
18	Learner Tien	2,345
19	Francisco Cerundolo	2,310
20	Alexander Bublik	2,285
21	Jiri Lehecka	2,275
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920
27	Alexander Blockx	1,790
28	Hubert Hurkacz	1,585
29	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1,565
30	Alejandro Tabilo	1,565
31	Valentin Vacherot	1,480
32	Ignacio Buse	1,445
33	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1,430
34	Alex Michelsen	1,410
35	Arthur Fery	1,406
36	Matteo Arnaldi	1,311
37	Botic Van De Zandschulp	1,295
38	Ugo Humbert	1,270
39	Zizou Bergs	1,260
40	Joao Fonseca	1,250
41	Cameron Norrie	1,195
42	Daniel Merida	1,195
43	Mariano Navone	1,164
44	Arthur Gea	1,160
45	Quentin Halys	1,127
46	Luca Van Assche	1,105
47	Jan-Lennard Struff	1,084
48	Matteo Berrettini	1,083
49	Sebastian Baez	1,044
50	Tallon Griekspoor	1,035
51	Thiago Agustin Tirante	1,024
52	Denis Shapovalov	1,015
53	Nuno Borges	1,000
54	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1,000
55	Raphael Collignon	993
56	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	947
57	Jaime Faria	941
58	Miomir Kecmanovic	930
59	Yannick Hanfmann	923
60	Daniel Altmaier	874
61	Arthur Rinderknech	870
62	Ethan Quinn	861
63	Fabian Marozsan	860
64	Vit Kopriva	844
65	Jaume Munar	835
66	Mattia Bellucci	824
67	Martin Landaluce	822
68	James Duckworth	814
69	Roman Safiullin	807
70	Facundo Diaz Acosta	807
71	Tomas Machac	804
72	Titouan Droguet	801
73	Adrian Mannarino	783
74	Pablo Carreno Busta	773
75	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	770
76	Zachary Svajda	759
77	Roman Andres Burruchaga	754
78	Hamad Medjedovic	751
79	Kyrian Jacquet	741
80	Alex Molcan	734
81	Sebastian Korda	730
82	Kamil Majchrzak	725
83	Damir Dzumhur	712
84	Aleksandar Kovacevic	703
85	Rinky Hijikata	689
86	Jacob Fearnley	686
87	Chak Lam Coleman Wong	678
88	Marcos Giron	676
89	Marco Trungelliti	670
90	Terence Atmane	666
91	Lorenzo Sonego	658
92	Bu Yunchaokete	652
93	Dino Prizmic	638
94	Jenson Brooksby	638
95	Nikoloz Basilashvili	631
96	Marin Cilic	629
97	Toby Samuel	625
98	Adam Walton	619
99	Benjamin Bonzi	617
100	Henrique Rocha	596
101	Michael Zheng	594
102	Jesper de Jong	591
103	Corentin Moutet	590
104	Zsombor Piros	590
105	Martin Damm	582
106	Sho Shimabukuro	580
107	Wu Yibing	571
108	Lloyd Harris	571
109	Aleksandr Shevchenko	559
110	Hugo Gaston	548
111	Thiago Seyboth Wild	545
112	Dane Sweeny	538
113	Gustavo Heide	535
114	Jan Choinski	533
115	Nicolas Mejia	519
116	Aleksandar Vukic	507
117	Valentin Royer	506
118	Christopher O'Connell	499
119	Hugo Dellien	498
120	Dalibor Svrcina	494
121	Otto Virtanen	493
122	Sebastian Ofner	491
123	Emilio Nava	484
124	Grigor Dimitrov	472
125	Rei Sakamoto	469
126	Pedro Martinez	462
127	Alexei Popyrin	458
128	Francisco Comesana	455
129	Shintaro Mochizuki	451
130	Alexandre Muller	441
131	Nishesh Basavareddy	432
132	Stefanos Sakellaridis	431
133	Max Alcala Gurri	430
134	Clement Chidekh	428
135	Borna Gojo	416
136	Laslo Djere	412
137	Jurij Rodionov	411
138	Matej Dodig	410
139	Andrea Pellegrino	404
140	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	403
141	Tristan Schoolkate	403
142	Federico Cina	401
143	Marton Fucsovics	400
144	Darwin Blanch	397
145	Vilius Gaubas	396
146	Ilia Simakin	396
147	Michael Mmoh	386
148	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	385
149	Gabriel Diallo	382
150	Elmer Moller	378

Players & profiles

No.14 ATP

Age: 29 years
Height: 1,85 m
Weight: 82 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: Voorhees, NJ, USA

No.3 ATP

Age: 23 years
Height: 1,83 m
Weight: 74 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: El Palmar, Murcia, Spain

Career record

	Paul	Alcaraz
2026 season · W / L	44 - 20	33 - 5
Wins / Losses	249 - 158	313 - 70
Win rate	61 %	82 %
Titles 2026	1	3
Titles	5	27

Keys to the match

Alcaraz can impose his direct advantage and recent momentum, with two victories in Vienna and a clear first-set win against Basilashvili; the limitation is the very tight second-set tiebreak and the lack of detailed physical or statistical data.
Paul can rely on two straight-set victories, including a second-round match concluded in 48 minutes, but his 2-7 head-to-head record and the lack of quantified tactical trends on this surface limit the strength of this argument.

Players & fitness

No injury, physical discomfort, treatment, or movement limitation has been verified before the match.
The service and return statistics specific to this edition and this match have not been established.

Alerts & record

Create a selection alert Our predictions are settled publicly — view the record

A probability is never a guarantee of outcome. If you bet, only wager what you can afford to lose.

Analyses are generated by our model and guarantee no outcome. Please gamble responsibly.

Loading match details…

This content was machine-translated from the French version.

USANo.14 ATP

Erste Bank Open

Quarter-finalMen’s singles

Friday, 30 October 2026 · 15:00

Vienna

ESPNo.3 ATP

Marcelito prediction

Carlos Alcaraz

Match winner

Observed odds1.26

Win probability

79%

Operator odds are not available right now

Prediction summary

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz · Match winner. Estimated probability: 79.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

See more details

Comparative statistics

PaulAlcaraz

World rankingNo.14No.3
Ranking points2,6755,610
Win rate (career)61 %82 %
Wins (career)249313
Titles527

Detailed analysis

Recent form

Likely event: 2026 Erste Bank Open in Vienna, men's singles, quarterfinals, indoor hard court. Alcaraz defeated Karen Khachanov and then Nikoloz Basilashvili 6-1, 7-6(11), in 1 h 40.

Head-to-head

The announced head-to-head record favors Carlos Alcaraz, 7-2. A recent documented meeting took place in the US Open round of 16 on September 6, 2026, but the dossier does not provide the final score.

This record supports Alcaraz's historical advantage, without precisely measuring current form on indoor hard courts or the conditions of this match.

Line-up and availability

Market reading

Prediction: Carlos Alcaraz · Match winner. Estimated probability: 79.2 %, based on market odds. No stake: this probability does not justify a bet at the available odds.

Recent form

Tommy Paul4 W - 1 L

29 Oct 2026vs Luciano Darderi6-1 6-1W
27 Oct 2026vs Andrey Rublev7-5 6-2W
24 Oct 2026vs Taylor Fritz3-6 5-7L
23 Oct 2026vs Corentin Moutet6-4 3-6 6-3W
21 Oct 2026vs Benjamin Bonzi6-4 6-7(4) 6-3W

Carlos Alcaraz4 W - 1 L

29 Oct 2026vs Nikoloz Basilashvili6-1 7-6(11)W
27 Oct 2026vs Karen Khachanov6-4 7-6(5)W
12 Oct 2026vs Zizou Bergs5-7 6-7(4)L
10 Oct 2026vs Juan Manuel Cerundolo6-3 6-3W
06 Oct 2026vs Jiri Lehecka7-6(4) 6-4W

Surface & conditions

Erste Bank Open

Court: Centre Court
Forecast: 12 °CSunny spells

ATP ranking

#	Player	Points
1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
…
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495

See the full ranking

1	Jannik Sinner	10,450
2	Alexander Zverev	9,750
3	Carlos Alcaraz	5,610
4	Ben Shelton	4,680
5	Daniil Medvedev	3,860
6	Flavio Cobolli	3,690
7	Felix Auger-Aliassime	3,515
8	Arthur Fils	3,425
9	Frances Tiafoe	3,380
10	Alex de Minaur	3,280
11	Rafael Jodar	3,234
12	Novak Djokovic	3,090
13	Taylor Fritz	2,995
14	Tommy Paul	2,675
15	Alejandro Davidovich Fokina	2,600
16	Jakub Mensik	2,495
17	Brandon Nakashima	2,375
18	Learner Tien	2,345
19	Francisco Cerundolo	2,310
20	Alexander Bublik	2,285
21	Jiri Lehecka	2,275
22	Andrey Rublev	2,175
23	Luciano Darderi	2,160
24	Karen Khachanov	2,030
25	Casper Ruud	1,995
26	Lorenzo Musetti	1,920
27	Alexander Blockx	1,790
28	Hubert Hurkacz	1,585
29	Tomas Martin Etcheverry	1,565
30	Alejandro Tabilo	1,565
31	Valentin Vacherot	1,480
32	Ignacio Buse	1,445
33	Stefanos Tsitsipas	1,430
34	Alex Michelsen	1,410
35	Arthur Fery	1,406
36	Matteo Arnaldi	1,311
37	Botic Van De Zandschulp	1,295
38	Ugo Humbert	1,270
39	Zizou Bergs	1,260
40	Joao Fonseca	1,250
41	Cameron Norrie	1,195
42	Daniel Merida	1,195
43	Mariano Navone	1,164
44	Arthur Gea	1,160
45	Quentin Halys	1,127
46	Luca Van Assche	1,105
47	Jan-Lennard Struff	1,084
48	Matteo Berrettini	1,083
49	Sebastian Baez	1,044
50	Tallon Griekspoor	1,035
51	Thiago Agustin Tirante	1,024
52	Denis Shapovalov	1,015
53	Nuno Borges	1,000
54	Juan Manuel Cerundolo	1,000
55	Raphael Collignon	993
56	Adolfo Daniel Vallejo	947
57	Jaime Faria	941
58	Miomir Kecmanovic	930
59	Yannick Hanfmann	923
60	Daniel Altmaier	874
61	Arthur Rinderknech	870
62	Ethan Quinn	861
63	Fabian Marozsan	860
64	Vit Kopriva	844
65	Jaume Munar	835
66	Mattia Bellucci	824
67	Martin Landaluce	822
68	James Duckworth	814
69	Roman Safiullin	807
70	Facundo Diaz Acosta	807
71	Tomas Machac	804
72	Titouan Droguet	801
73	Adrian Mannarino	783
74	Pablo Carreno Busta	773
75	Camilo Ugo Carabelli	770
76	Zachary Svajda	759
77	Roman Andres Burruchaga	754
78	Hamad Medjedovic	751
79	Kyrian Jacquet	741
80	Alex Molcan	734
81	Sebastian Korda	730
82	Kamil Majchrzak	725
83	Damir Dzumhur	712
84	Aleksandar Kovacevic	703
85	Rinky Hijikata	689
86	Jacob Fearnley	686
87	Chak Lam Coleman Wong	678
88	Marcos Giron	676
89	Marco Trungelliti	670
90	Terence Atmane	666
91	Lorenzo Sonego	658
92	Bu Yunchaokete	652
93	Dino Prizmic	638
94	Jenson Brooksby	638
95	Nikoloz Basilashvili	631
96	Marin Cilic	629
97	Toby Samuel	625
98	Adam Walton	619
99	Benjamin Bonzi	617
100	Henrique Rocha	596
101	Michael Zheng	594
102	Jesper de Jong	591
103	Corentin Moutet	590
104	Zsombor Piros	590
105	Martin Damm	582
106	Sho Shimabukuro	580
107	Wu Yibing	571
108	Lloyd Harris	571
109	Aleksandr Shevchenko	559
110	Hugo Gaston	548
111	Thiago Seyboth Wild	545
112	Dane Sweeny	538
113	Gustavo Heide	535
114	Jan Choinski	533
115	Nicolas Mejia	519
116	Aleksandar Vukic	507
117	Valentin Royer	506
118	Christopher O'Connell	499
119	Hugo Dellien	498
120	Dalibor Svrcina	494
121	Otto Virtanen	493
122	Sebastian Ofner	491
123	Emilio Nava	484
124	Grigor Dimitrov	472
125	Rei Sakamoto	469
126	Pedro Martinez	462
127	Alexei Popyrin	458
128	Francisco Comesana	455
129	Shintaro Mochizuki	451
130	Alexandre Muller	441
131	Nishesh Basavareddy	432
132	Stefanos Sakellaridis	431
133	Max Alcala Gurri	430
134	Clement Chidekh	428
135	Borna Gojo	416
136	Laslo Djere	412
137	Jurij Rodionov	411
138	Matej Dodig	410
139	Andrea Pellegrino	404
140	Pablo Llamas Ruiz	403
141	Tristan Schoolkate	403
142	Federico Cina	401
143	Marton Fucsovics	400
144	Darwin Blanch	397
145	Vilius Gaubas	396
146	Ilia Simakin	396
147	Michael Mmoh	386
148	Giovanni Mpetshi Perricard	385
149	Gabriel Diallo	382
150	Elmer Moller	378

Players & profiles

No.14 ATP

Age: 29 years
Height: 1,85 m
Weight: 82 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: Voorhees, NJ, USA

No.3 ATP

Age: 23 years
Height: 1,83 m
Weight: 74 kg
Plays: Right-handed
Born in: El Palmar, Murcia, Spain

Career record

	Paul	Alcaraz
2026 season · W / L	44 - 20	33 - 5
Wins / Losses	249 - 158	313 - 70
Win rate	61 %	82 %
Titles 2026	1	3
Titles	5	27

Keys to the match

Alcaraz can impose his direct advantage and recent momentum, with two victories in Vienna and a clear first-set win against Basilashvili; the limitation is the very tight second-set tiebreak and the lack of detailed physical or statistical data.
Paul can rely on two straight-set victories, including a second-round match concluded in 48 minutes, but his 2-7 head-to-head record and the lack of quantified tactical trends on this surface limit the strength of this argument.

Players & fitness

No injury, physical discomfort, treatment, or movement limitation has been verified before the match.
The service and return statistics specific to this edition and this match have not been established.

Alerts & record

Create a selection alert Our predictions are settled publicly — view the record

A probability is never a guarantee of outcome. If you bet, only wager what you can afford to lose.

Analyses are generated by our model and guarantee no outcome. Please gamble responsibly.