CoachM. Lustrinelli
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UnionBerlin
BorussiaDortmund
Mi-temps : 0–0
Pronostic Marcelito
Match finished — this forecast has been settled, see the day's review.
Selection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 69,7%, according to our model. Odds 1.71. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a stake at these odds.
Read the full analysisSelection: Under 3.5 goals (Totals). Estimated probability: 69,7%, according to our model. Odds 1.71. No bet: this probability is not sufficient to justify a stake at these odds.
The available archives show Union drawing 3-3 against Frankfurt, then losing 0-4 at Leverkusen, 1-3 against Schalke, and 0-7 at Bayern, between 29 August and 18 September 2026. These archives are partial and do not necessarily constitute the last five matches.
Dortmund won 2-0 against Hamburg, 3-2 at Hoffenheim, 3-0 against Paderborn, and 1-0 at Stuttgart, before drawing 2-2 against Werder on 9 October, their first match without a win of the season according to BVB. After four matchdays, Dortmund had 13 points and a goal record of 11-4, compared with 1 point and 4-17 for Union.
No consistent xG, shot-volume, or pressing indicator has been established over the entire period. Dortmund has eight days between its match on 9 October and this one; Union was due to play Elversberg on 10 October, but that match had not yet been played.
The recent documented matchups are Dortmund-Union 3-0 on 31 August 2025, Union-Dortmund 0-3 on 24 January 2026, Dortmund-Union 6-0 on 22 February 2025, and Union-Dortmund 2-1 on 5 October 2024. The recent H2H favors Dortmund, but its prédictive valeur is limited by possible changes in squads, coaches, and context.
The 3-0 in January 2026 is nevertheless a concrete precedent concerning duels, long balls, and a poorly cleared corner.
The match is scheduled for Bundesliga 2026/27, Matchday 6, on October 17, 2026 at 13:30 UTC at Stadion An der Alten Försterei, with Union Berlin hosting Dortmund. Favorable scenario for Dortmund: its best start, league-leading position, and ability to exploit mistakes from set pieces could allow it to control the match.
Opposing scenario: home advantage, initial pressure from Union, duels, and set pieces could overturn the gap, especially if Dortmund allows transitions after losing possession. The immediate stakes are probably more pressing for Union, which is looking to leave the relegation zone, while Dortmund is defending first place; however, the standings before the match depend on interim results.
| # | Team | P | GD | Pts | W | D | L | BP | BC | Form |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | +10 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 14 | 4 | WDWWW | |
| 2 | 5 | +7 | 13 | 4 | 1 | 0 | 11 | 4 | DWWWW | |
| 3 | 5 | +12 | 11 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 16 | 4 | DWWDW | |
| 4 | 5 | +6 | 10 | 3 | 1 | 1 | 14 | 8 | WWDWL | |
| 5 | 5 | +10 | 9 | 3 | 0 | 2 | 15 | 5 | WLWLW | |
| 6 | 5 | +5 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 13 | 8 | DLDWW | |
| 7 | 5 | 0 | 8 | 2 | 2 | 1 | 10 | 10 | DWDWL | |
| 8 | 5 | +3 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 10 | LWLWD | |
| 9 | 5 | 0 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 8 | LDLWW | |
| 10 | 5 | -2 | 7 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 8 | 10 | WLDLW | |
| 11 | 5 | -1 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 8 | 9 | WLLWL | |
| 12 | 5 | -10 | 6 | 2 | 0 | 3 | 5 | 15 | WWLLL | |
| 13 | 5 | -2 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 6 | LDWDL | |
| 14 | 5 | -7 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 9 | 16 | LDWLD | |
| 15 | 5 | -4 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 7 | LWLLD | |
| 16 | 5 | -12 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 5 | 17 | WLLLD | |
| 17 | 5 | -4 | 3 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 9 | 13 | LLWLL | |
| 18 | 5 | -11 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 5 | 7 | 18 | LLLLL |
CoachM. Lustrinelli
CoachN. Kovač
Bench · Out and doubtful
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 76 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 76 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 89 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 45 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 2 | 70 | 1 | 0 |
| Player | Rating | G | A | SoT | Shots | Min | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 1 | 90 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 0 | 90 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 62 | 1 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 0 | 3 | 62 | 0 | 0 | ||
| 0 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 90 | 1 | 0 |
Union BerlinBorussia Dortmund
RecordUnion Berlin · 2W · 0D · 1L
